South Sudan Approaching the Brink of Full-scale Conflict
Violence in South Sudan is intensifying, with increased clashes between factions loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. Accusations of ethnic collaboration and political maneuvers are destabilizing the fragile 2018 peace agreement. With Uganda’s military intervention and dire economic conditions, experts warn of an impending escalation. Public discontent remains high as humanitarian needs rise amidst postponed elections.
In recent weeks, violence in South Sudan has surged, as renewed confrontations occur in Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal states. The hostilities are largely attributed to ongoing skirmishes between factions loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. The resurgence of violence threatens the fragility of a peace deal established in 2018, which ended a devastating civil war resulting in more than 400,000 deaths.
The government has levied accusations against Machar and his associates, alleging their collaboration with the White Army militia, primarily composed of the Neur ethnic group, following an assault on a military base. The attack in Nasir, which resulted in the deaths of Major General Majur Dak and others, has intensified discord as the military encircled Machar’s residence. The ongoing unrest questions the validity of the 2018 peace agreement, previously stabilizing the nation.
February witnessed violent protests in Western Bahr el-Ghazal, driven by President Kiir’s unilateral reshuffle of government officials, including dismissing Vice Presidents. This was perceived as undermining the power-sharing protocols agreed upon in the 2018 peace deal. Such actions are indicative of Kiir’s attempts to consolidate power ahead of upcoming elections, resulting in ethnic tensions, particularly favoring appointments within his Dinka group.
On March 11, Uganda dispatched special forces to Juba in support of Kiir’s regime, continuing its history of intervention during periods of unrest. Although aimed at maintaining stability in the capital, such measures may exacerbate ethnic tensions and conflict in western South Sudan, undermining prospects for meaningful dialogue and peace initiatives.
The escalation of violence is partly driven by economic hardships exacerbated by conflict in neighboring Sudan, impacting South Sudan’s oil-dependent economy. Declining oil revenues, coupled with the influx of Sudanese refugees, has put immense pressure on a frail economic structure. Vital oil infrastructure and product flow have been severely damaged, leading to increased food prices and dissatisfaction among citizens.
Ethnic identification has been manipulated by political leaders for personal gain, resulting in deep-seated grievances. The centralization of oil revenues further fuels ethnic discord, with the Dinka-controlled forces gaining preferential access to resources, while other ethnic groups, primarily the Nuer, are systematically marginalized. This pattern has led to an upsurge in local violence and communal strife.
The ongoing conflict has featured brutal targeting of specific ethnic groups, yet power-sharing agreements have not remedied the root issues, primarily access to resources and patronage. Instead, these arrangements have merely redistributed elite power without achieving foundational reform, making military interventions unlikely to succeed in resolving the crisis.
Experts predict further violence, with potential assaults on strategic cities like Malakal and Nasir. The capture of such urban centers could lead to escalated communal massacres, thereby igniting broader conflict across South Sudan. Meanwhile, public discontent grows, with a significant portion of the population requiring humanitarian assistance. With elections constantly postponed, skepticism arises regarding any future democratic processes in the nation.
The situation in South Sudan is increasingly perilous, with escalating violence threatening the fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement. Accusations of political manipulation, resource monopolization, and ethnic favoritism further complicate the landscape. As factions vie for power and control, the potential for widespread conflict looms large. Continued humanitarian crises add urgency, highlighting the vital need for effective governance and a genuine commitment to peace in the region.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
