South Sudan on the Brink: Rising Violence and Political Instability

South Sudan faces escalating violence, particularly in Upper Nile state, due to tensions between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar. The ongoing conflict threatens the fragile peace achieved in 2018, exacerbated by the war in neighboring Sudan that has severely impacted oil revenues. Organizations warn of a heightened risk of widespread violence as corruption and public dissatisfaction rise amidst prolonged power struggles.

South Sudan is currently experiencing a significant increase in violence, particularly in the Upper Nile state, which is further aggravating internal fractures and rampant corruption within the nation. This escalation jeopardizes the fragile peace established by a 2018 agreement intended to resolve previous conflicts.

Renewed tensions stem from escalating hostilities between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, who have transitioned from former rebel leaders to rivals. Recently, several of Machar’s allies, including the oil minister, were arrested in Juba amidst ongoing conflicts in the Upper Nile region.

Since February 2023, clashes have erupted between the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF), with militia support, and the “White Army,” an armed group aligned with Machar. A recent U.N. helicopter rescue mission was attacked, resulting in the deaths of a general and 27 soldiers. These conflicts have already displaced thousands and caused numerous injuries.

The original 2018 peace agreement, which concluded a civil war that began in 2013 leaving nearly 400,000 dead and 4 million displaced, is now threatened by the ongoing civil unrest in neighboring Sudan since April 2023. The International Crisis Group noted that an explosion near Khartoum had heavily impacted South Sudan’s oil revenues, causing a significant economic downturn and undermining Kiir’s hold over his patronage network.

South Sudan’s political scenario remains precarious, characterized by deep corruption and reliance on oil revenues despite widespread poverty. Organizations like Human Rights Watch have warned that rising tensions could lead to severe violence, following a U.N. Human Rights Commission report criticizing the political and military elites for instigating instability.

A lack of essential services and persistent power struggles between Kiir and Machar continue to erode public trust, heightening the likelihood of state collapse. Such a scenario could result in South Sudan becoming a stronghold for militant groups and illegal enterprises, as cautioned by the International Crisis Group.

The escalation of violence in South Sudan highlights the tenuous nature of peace in a country deeply affected by internal divisions and external influences. Continued political rivalry and socio-economic crises further jeopardize stability, with possible implications for widespread conflict. The situation underscores the urgent need for a comprehensive approach to restore governance and security in the region.

Original Source: international.la-croix.com