Rising Tensions Between Ethiopia and Eritrea: A Looming Conflict?

Ethiopia and Eritrea are nearing a potential war due to rising tensions in the Tigray region following a civil war and subsequent political instability, risking a return to conflict that undermines the peace established in 2019. Historical grievances and recent military mobilizations raise concerns about a humanitarian disaster in the Horn of Africa.

Officials in northern Ethiopia and regional experts have raised concerns regarding the possibility of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Such a conflict would jeopardize the fragile peace established by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2019, for which he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, and could lead to significant humanitarian crises in the Horn of Africa region.

The concerns about war have emerged due to rising tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which experienced a civil war from 2020 to 2022, resulting in significant loss of life. Eritrean forces had intervened during that conflict to support Ethiopia’s federal forces against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), but a peace agreement signed in late 2022 created rifts, especially since Eritrea was not involved in the negotiations. The situation has been exacerbated by power struggles, as a dissident faction recently seized the town of Adigrat, accusing the interim administration of betraying Tigrayan interests.

With tensions escalating, Eritrea initiated a nationwide military mobilization in mid-February, while Ethiopia has dispatched troops to the Eritrean border. Reports indicate that both governments have not commented on these developments, heightening concerns about a potential armed confrontation.

Historically, the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has been tumultuous. Eritrea, initially part of Ethiopia, achieved independence in 1993 following a long struggle led by Isaias Afwerki. The two nations enjoyed amicable relations post-independence, which soured dramatically after a border war initiated in 1998 over the contested town of Badme, leading to extensive casualties and enduring hostilities.

Ties improved in 2018 when President Isaias and Prime Minister Abiy agreed to restore diplomatic relations, facilitating family reunions and economic partnerships. However, the climate deteriorated amid the Tigray conflict, as Ethiopia’s eagerness to reach agreements with the TPLF, without Eritrea’s inclusion, troubled Eritrean officials. Moreover, tensions escalated with Abiy’s public statements about Ethiopia’s rights to sea access, perceived by Eritreans as threats of military action.

In September, Ethiopian Airlines suspended its flights to Eritrea following bank account issues, further straining relations. Additionally, Eritrea signed a security pact with Egypt and Somalia intended to counter Ethiopia’s influence, indicating a complex geopolitical landscape in the region.

The potential for conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is heightened by recent tensions in the Tigray region and historical grievances. The absence of dialogue between the two nations threatens the fragile peace established in recent years. The international community must monitor the situation closely to prevent a possible humanitarian crisis, as the return of hostilities would have dire implications for the Horn of Africa.

Original Source: ntvkenya.co.ke