Ethiopia’s Dangerous Descent: The Road to War with Eritrea

Ethiopia faces a critical juncture as tensions with Eritrea escalate, driven by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s authoritarian governance and historical ethnic divisions. The potential for conflict could distract from internal discontent while significantly destabilizing the Horn of Africa. Diplomatic engagement is crucial in preventing catastrophe as both leaders risk further violence to maintain their grip on power.

The complexities of Ethiopia’s political landscape have intensified fears of renewed conflict with Eritrea, as ethnic divisions deepen amid escalating tensions. The imperial rhetoric emanating from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration unnervingly resembles that of Haile Selassie, reflecting ambitions that could lead to a catastrophic military confrontation. Such sentiments are not only a reflection of nationalistic fervor but serve as a possible strategy for Abiy to reinforce his power in an increasingly fragmented political environment.

Abiy Ahmed, despite portraying himself as a reformer, is effectively an authoritarian leader facing mounting pressures from Ethiopia’s historic ethnic divisions. The notion that ethnic fragmentation is a recent development is misleading; Ethiopia has long been characterized by ethnic divisions, a reality exacerbated by ethnic federalism initiated under former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. These divisions now pose existential threats to Abiy, complicating his governance.

Engaging in warfare with Eritrea may serve as a distraction for Abiy Ahmed, providing an avenue to unite the populace against a common enemy while quelling dissent at home. His current political strategy hinges on shifting attention away from internal strife toward perceived external threats. By embracing irredentist ideals, Abiy openly courts nationalist factions, revealing desperation in his political maneuvers rather than genuine strategic policy.

Should conflict arise, the implications for the Horn of Africa are dire. Already embroiled in chaos, neighboring states like Sudan and South Sudan are teetering on the edge of further violence, mirroring the potential fragmentation of Ethiopia itself. The ramifications of a confrontation with Eritrea would extend beyond mere borders, escalating regional instability and drawing in various international stakeholders.

In summary, the looming threat of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea represents both a perilous crossroads for the Horn of Africa and a desperate move by Abiy Ahmed to secure his regime. The ethnic divides in Ethiopia, exacerbated by his authoritarian tactics, pose challenges not only to national stability but also to regional peace. Diplomatic efforts are urgently needed to avert escalating tensions and avoid a broader humanitarian crisis in an already volatile area. What remains clear is that both Abiy and Afewerki are willing to gamble extensively in their pursuit of power, potentially at a significant cost to their respective nations.

Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu