New Insurgency Threat Looms as ONLF Addresses Unmet Peace Deal Promises
The ONLF signals a potential return to insurgency due to the Ethiopian government’s failure to uphold a 2018 peace agreement, exacerbated by systemic corruption and political repression in the Somali region. With significant grievances unresolved, the ONLF’s resurgence threatens both regional stability and broader conflicts across Ethiopia, necessitating urgent government reforms and international support to promote peace and autonomy.
The Ethiopian Somali Regional State faces a resurgence of conflict as the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) contemplates a return to insurgency stemming from a deteriorating relationship with the federal government. The ONLF Chairman, Abdirahman Sheikh Mahdi, has warned about the potential collapse of the peace agreement forged in 2018, citing the federal government’s failure to adhere to the terms of the deal, including restrictions on political activities and ongoing disputes over resources, which has fueled local grievances and discontent.
Ethiopia’s federal system is under duress, exacerbated by tensions among various regional militias and the Prime Minister’s Prosperity Party. The ONLF has raised concerns regarding the systemic neglect and political disenfranchisement faced by communities in the Somali region, which, despite housing substantial energy reserves, remains economically marginalized. A return to armed insurgency poses not only a threat to Ethiopia’s stability but also to the broader Horn of Africa, potentially intensifying regional tensions.
Born from a legacy of marginalization, the ONLF was established in 1984 in response to Ethiopia’s repression of Somali self-determination and exploitation of local resources. The group has historically battled against Addis Abeba’s policies that benefited the federal administration while impoverishing the Somali populace. Prior government responses to dissidence included brutal counterinsurgency measures that targeted civilian populations, exacerbating resentment and distrust.
The 2018 peace deal was intended to facilitate the disarmament and reintegration of ONLF fighters and grant political legitimacy to the group. However, minimal progress has been made in these areas, leading to deepening frustrations among former combatants, many of whom remain destitute without viable livelihoods. The Prosperity Party’s efforts to centralize power have further resurrected the core grievances that prompted the original insurgency, violating commitments made in the peace agreement.
The current Somali regional administration, led by Mustafa Omar, has been criticized for alleged corruption and oppressive tactics against opposition groups. Reports suggest substantial embezzlement of funds intended for essential services, such as clean water initiatives, highlighting the disparity between resource wealth and local well-being. The ONLF accuses the government of criminalizing dissent through the obstruction of political activities, contradicting the peaceful engagement that the peace agreement aimed to foster.
The government’s strategy towards the ONLF appears to combine co-optation with coercion, evident in attempts to form a splinter faction within the ONLF. Nevertheless, grassroots support for the original ONLF remains steadfast, bolstered by clan networks and a politically active diaspora. As the ONLF adopts new forms of mobilization, grassroots activism coupled with a digital presence amplifies local demands for accountability, echoing global movements for justice.
The ONLF has urged the Ethiopian government to honor its obligations under the 2018 peace deal and address local grievances, warning of severe repercussions for entities pursuing resource extraction without public consent. While the ONLF’s military strength is diminished, its capacity for asymmetric conflict persists, utilizing narrative-driven resistance strategies to maintain relevance amid state resistance.
To avert further conflict, the Ethiopian federal government must actively revive the 2018 peace accord through substantial reforms, including anti-corruption measures and safeguarding regional autonomy. International engagement and support from the African Union could facilitate peace-building efforts, although skepticism about the AU’s commitment remains. With ongoing instability elsewhere in the country and a burgeoning humanitarian crisis, preventative actions in the Somali region are crucial to avoid exacerbating interethnic tensions and encouraging terrorist exploits.
The ONLF Chair’s assertion that “We are out of patience” serves as a stark warning for the Ethiopian government, emphasizing the urgency of addressing underlying issues to avoid igniting a broader conflict. The future of Ethiopia hinges on dismantling exclusionary policies, fostering equitable governance, and embracing dialogue to pave the way for reconciliation and stability.
The situation in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State is precarious, with the ONLF warning of possible armed conflict due to unmet peace deal commitments. Historical grievances of marginalization and corruption persist, undermining peace efforts and revitalizing calls for autonomy and equitable resource distribution. Ethiopia’s leadership must take decisive action to rebuild trust, implement reforms, and engage meaningfully with all stakeholders to avert renewed violence and foster lasting stability in the region.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
