Renewed Violence in South Sudan: Preventing a Return to Civil War

The rising violence in South Sudan, particularly in Upper Nile State, raises concerns of another civil war, exacerbated by Uganda’s military intervention and internal political dynamics. Historical tensions between ethnic groups and recent militia actions complicate the situation, necessitating dialogue and community engagement to avoid escalation. The international community has largely condemned the violence but has failed to implement effective measures to address the crisis.

In South Sudan, rising political tensions and escalated violence in Upper Nile State have heightened concerns of a potential return to civil war. Notably, in March 2025, Uganda deployed troops at the South Sudanese government’s request, leading to aerial bombardments, which opposition groups opposed. This intervention risks destabilizing the 2018 power-sharing agreement between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar, crucial for peace after a five-year civil war. Jan Pospisil, an expert on South Sudan’s political landscape, explores the factors contributing to the increasing discontent.

As of early March 2025, the Nuer community militia, known as the White Army, initiated attacks against South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Nasir County, triggering severe clashes that resulted in approximately fifty fatalities and numerous injuries. Claims by the White Army indicate these actions were defensive. This outbreak of violence echoes past conflicts but has escalated alarmingly. The government’s military response, including aerial assaults and arrests of opposition figures, has exacerbated tensions and undermined efforts towards stability.

Historical grievances between the Nuer and Dinka communities have deepened the current conflict, with roots extending back to the SPLM’s 1991 split. The White Army, originally formed to protect the Nuer community and manage cattle raids, has remained independently operational, complicating political control. Riek Machar has struggled to unify all Nuer militias under his command, which is essential to understanding the conflict’s dynamics today.

The recent surge in violence differs from the civil war outbreak in 2013, when Nasir experienced significant violence due to government troops targeting the Nuer-majority area in retaliation for past grievances. In contrast, recent attacks by the White Army appear impulsive rather than centrally commanded, igniting a cycle of retaliatory violence. A notable defeat for government forces inspired further animosities, leading to increased conflict and loss of life.

The SPLM-led government has resorted to scapegoating opposition members to explain the White Army’s actions, claiming they orchestrated the attacks. This erroneous narrative neglects the White Army’s historical independence and politicizes their actions. Efforts to arrest opposition figures seem to be driven more by a need to assert control than to tackle the violence’s root causes.

To avert a return to war, the government must pursue dialogue and cease arbitrary arrests of opposition figures. Unrestricted attacks on civilians must also be halted. Engaging community leaders, particularly those wielding influence over the White Army, is pivotal for de-escalation. The approaching rainy season, anticipated to commence in April, may provide an opportunity for confidence-building measures between Nuer communities and government forces.

Internationally, the community has condemned the violence but has not enacted substantial measures to address the crisis. The UN mission in South Sudan has urged restraint but has inadequately addressed the complex dynamics of the White Army’s actions. There is a pressing need for clear condemnation of targeted opposition arrests to prevent the justification of military violence by South Sudan’s government. Emphasizing de-escalation and recognizing underlying grievances are crucial for a sustainable political solution.

In summary, the renewed violence in South Sudan, particularly involving the White Army and South Sudan People’s Defence Forces, highlights the fragility of peace in the region. The historical context of ethnic tensions, mismanagement of political narratives, and the dynamics of community militias underscores the complexity of the current situation. To prevent a return to civil war, dialogue, community engagement, and international intervention are essential to ensure stability and address the root causes of discontent.

Original Source: theconversation.com