Rising Violence in South Sudan: Risks of Civil War and Paths to Peace
Violence in South Sudan is escalating, raising fears of a civil war. Political tensions have been exacerbated by Uganda’s military intervention and attacks by the White Army. Historical grievances between the Nuer and Dinka communities complicate the situation, as do government actions including arrests of opposition leaders. Preventing further conflict requires dialogue, community engagement, and international support.
Rising violence in South Sudan has raised alarms regarding a potential return to civil war, particularly due to increased political tensions and recent escalations in the Upper Nile State. In March 2025, the Ugandan military was deployed to assist South Sudan’s government, reportedly involving aerial bombardments, which opposition groups criticized and subsequently withdrew from discussions on a unified military structure. This scenario endangers the fragile power-sharing agreement established in 2018 between President Salva Kiir and First Vice-President Riek Machar, which had temporarily halted a prolonged civil conflict.
The recent violence witnessed the White Army, a militia representing the Nuer community, launching attacks on South Sudan People’s Defence Forces in Nasir County, resulting in significant casualties. This incident has been characterized as self-defense by the White Army, underscoring the ongoing ethnic tensions that trace back to the 1991 SPLM split. The unfolding violence parallels previous conflicts but appears to have escalated more rapidly this time due to government retaliatory actions, including bombings and arrests of opposition leaders, further inflaming the situation.
Unlike the violence in 2013, which was characterized by government forces’ revenge against the Nuer, the current conflict seems driven by specific provocations without centralized direction. Recent skirmishes began when White Army members attacked soldiers gathering firewood, leading to subsequent retaliatory attacks that have threatened civilian safety. The Nuer militia’s recent military successes in Nasir have challenged the government’s authority, compelling it to blame opposition leaders for the unrest despite the independent actions of the White Army.
To avert a return to civil war, stakeholders must prioritize dialogue and community demobilization initiatives. The government ought to refrain from arbitrary arrests of opposition figures while ceasing aggressive actions against civilians. Successful conflict resolution relies heavily on engaging influential community leaders capable of moderating the White Army’s activities. With the impending rainy season reducing the feasibility of military operations, this period could promote confidence-building measures between the army and Nuer communities.
While the international community has condemned the violence, their response has been largely inadequate. The UN mission has called for restraint but has not sufficiently addressed the complexities surrounding White Army mobilization. A more pronounced international stance is crucial, denouncing the arrests of opposition figures and advocating for long-term political solutions to address underlying grievances, thus diminishing government justifications for military force.
The resurgence of violence in South Sudan highlights the pressing need for constructive dialogue and comprehensive solutions to prevent another civil war. The interplay of historical ethnic tensions, recent provocations, and governmental responses threatens the fragile peace established in 2018. To move forward, it is essential that both national and international actors work collaboratively towards de-escalation, mutual understanding, and sustained community involvement.
Original Source: eastleighvoice.co.ke
