Tigray Power Struggle Risks Renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict
The Tigray conflict in Ethiopia risks escalating into a war involving Eritrea, following a dispute within the TPLF. Recent power shifts threaten regional stability, as Eritrean troops remain stationed in contested areas. Humanitarian issues compound the situation, highlighting the urgent need for diplomatic intervention to avert further violence.
The ongoing power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) poses a significant risk of reigniting conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Recently, a splinter group seized control of key locations in Tigray, leading to accusations from interim leader Getachew Reda that the rival faction is collaborating with Eritrean authorities to incite civil war anew. Historically, Eritrea’s relationship with the TPLF has been tumultuous, having transitioned from allies to adversaries post-independence from Ethiopia in the 1990s.
Despite a peace agreement reached in 2022 that ended a devastating civil war, Eritrean troops remain in disputed areas, ignoring calls from international entities for withdrawal. Getachew emphasized that the current power dynamics may destabilize Tigray further, evolving into a broader conflict involving neighboring states. He remarked, “In the case of possible invasion by Ethiopia’s military, the Eritrean government wants Tigray to serve as a buffer zone. This is taking Tigray into another phase of turmoil.”
TPLF factions dissatisfied with the Pretoria peace agreement claim they have been marginalized. Their grievances have contributed to the resurgence of violence, particularly as the paramilitary Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) recently shifted allegiances to a rival faction led by Debretsion, raising concerns over control of Tigray’s lucrative gold resources. Mustering forces on all sides, the situation bears potential for broader conflict that could implicate Sudan and destabilize the greater region.
Additionally, humanitarian implications remain dire, with millions in Tigray reliant on aid following the conflicts. Ethiopia faces challenges concerning its refugee population and fluctuating international support, particularly concerning its history with U.S. aid funding. Amid these tensions, Ethiopia’s engagement in negotiations concerning access to the Red Sea highlights its geopolitical vulnerabilities in the region, fostering further discord with Eritrea.
Peace discussions in other troubled regions, such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and diplomatic strains involving South Africa, further underscore the intricate web of conflicts in Africa. As regional leaders navigate these precarious relations, the potential for escalated military action looms large over Ethiopia and Eritrea’s future stability, necessitating urgent diplomatic interventions.
The power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front has reignited fears of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The seizure of key cities by a dissident group intensifies geopolitical tensions, particularly amid historical animosities and unresolved territorial disputes. The implications of such conflict extend beyond national borders, potentially destabilizing the region and exacerbating humanitarian crises. Urgent diplomatic efforts are essential to mitigate the risks of an impending war that could have dire consequences for millions in the Horn of Africa.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
