China’s Rare Earth Market Dominance May Decline Significantly by 2035

A recent study indicates that China’s rare earth market share could fall from 62% to 28% by 2035, and further to 23% by 2040. The research identifies Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland as emerging competitors, suggesting fundamental shifts in the industry. China’s traditional dominance, particularly in heavy rare earths, may be threatened by new mining projects.

Recent research published in the journal Chinese Rare Earths indicates that China, which currently holds a 62 percent share of global rare earth supplies, may witness its dominance crumble over the next decade. Projections suggest a reduction in its market share to approximately 28 percent by 2035, followed by a possible decline to 23 percent by 2040. This shift is attributed to new mining opportunities emerging in regions such as Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland, potentially leading to significant changes in the industry structure.

The study emphasizes that these changes could represent “fundamental shifts” in the competitive landscape of rare earth production. The researchers note that China’s stronghold on heavy rare earths, primarily sourced from its ion-adsorption clays in the southern regions, may also face challenges from developing projects like Greenland’s Kvanefjeld, as well as others in South America. It highlights the urgency for China to adapt as global dynamics evolve in this critical metals market.

The CAS study underscores a potential paradigm shift in the rare earth industry, forecasting a significant decline in China’s market share over the next decade. With emerging competitors from Africa, South America, Australia, and Greenland, China’s previously unassailable dominance may erode, prompting a reassessment of its strategic approach to rare earth production. The findings provoke thoughtful consideration about the future landscape of this vital resource sector.

Original Source: www.scmp.com