Ethiopia-Eritrea Tensions: An Impending Conflict on the Horizon?
The article discusses the historical and recent tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, marked by a brief period of diplomatic thawing in 2018 followed by renewed conflict and unresolved issues that jeopardize regional stability. The involvement of external actors and the internal dynamics further complicate this fragile peace, necessitating proactive diplomatic engagement to prevent escalation.
The relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has historically been complex and tumultuous, beginning with Eritrea’s independence in May 1993 after a long struggle. Initially, the two countries enjoyed a cordial rapport, fostering cooperation in various sectors, leading to hopes for enduring peace in the region. However, this optimism was swiftly overshadowed by the Ethio-Eritrean border war that erupted in May 1998, originating from a border skirmish and resulting in significant casualties and resource depletion, ultimately culminating in the Algiers Peace Agreement of December 2000.
Despite the signing of the Algiers Peace Agreement, peace remained elusive, largely due to Ethiopia’s non-compliance with the border ruling and a persistent atmosphere of mutual hostility. A significant shift occurred in July 2018, when Ethiopia and Eritrea revived their diplomatic ties, ending years of mutual destabilization, leading Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to secure the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in this transformation. However, the peace accord was criticized for its lack of inclusivity and transparency, which left numerous fundamental issues unresolved.
Tension resurfaced with the 2018 peace agreement serving to exacerbate existing conflict dynamics in Ethiopia, particularly between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), leading to the Tigray war in November 2020. The conflict, which lasted two years, inflicted severe human suffering and strained Ethiopia’s resources, while also diminishing its diplomatic standing. Eritrea’s involvement in the Tigray conflict was motivated by historical grievances against the TPLF and the desire to regain regional influence.
On November 2, 2022, the Ethiopian federal government and TPLF reached a Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in Pretoria, drawing mixed reactions from observers and failing to include significant war stakeholders such as Eritrean forces. As a result, the peace accord stagnated, and Eritrea felt sidelined, thus undermining the progress made during the 2018 thaw. In July 2024, further hostilities escalated when Eritrea banned Ethiopian Airlines from operating flights to Asmara, marking a significant decline in relations.
Amidst these rising tensions, accusations surfaced of Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki attempting to reignite conflict in Northern Ethiopia. Eritrea’s military mobilization further heightened anxieties of potential armed conflict, as Ethiopia permitted anti-Eritrean movements to operate within its territory. While an outright conflict may not be imminent, the possibility of localized skirmishes looms deterring ongoing regional peace efforts.
The Horn of Africa remains a highly contentious region, with Ethiopia and Eritrea’s tensions likely affecting broader regional cooperation and security. The involvement of external actors, particularly Egypt’s support for Eritrea amid disputes over the Nile, and the UAE’s strong partnership with Ethiopia complicates the situation, raising concerns for regional peace and stability. The complex interplay between regional and extra-regional interests could jeopardize peace and security, underscoring the need for proactive measures to de-escalate tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara.
In summary, while historical diplomacy between Ethiopia and Eritrea showed promise, unresolved issues, internal dynamics, and international interference continue to threaten stability in the Horn of Africa. It is imperative for the international community to engage in diplomatic efforts, facilitating dialogue between the two nations to avert further conflict and foster a more peaceful regional landscape.
The tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea highlight the fragility of peace in the Horn of Africa. Despite initial hopes for a resolution following the 2018 peace accord, unresolved issues and political dynamics have led to renewed conflict. Both countries must navigate internal and external pressures to attain lasting peace. Hence, the international community’s active involvement is crucial in facilitating dialogue and sustainable diplomatic relations.
Original Source: addisstandard.com
