Renewed Tensions in Tigray Risk Escalation into Broader Conflict

Civilians are fleeing Tigray as tensions rise between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, threatening a full-scale conflict. Political divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and failures in the Pretoria Agreement contribute to instability. Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access and regional implications of the conflict add to the complexity of the crisis.

Civilians are fleeing Ethiopia’s Tigray region due to fears of renewed conflict, as tensions escalate between Eritrean and Ethiopian forces along their border. This situation follows the 2020-2022 Tigray War, which ended with the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. Failures to implement crucial provisions of this agreement have amplified divisions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with internal instability in Ethiopia and Eritrea’s sovereignty concerns contributing to a potential full-scale conflict.

The resurgence of conflict in Tigray is marked by a power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Rival factions aligned with President Getachew Reda and Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael bolster tensions, with accusations of Eritrean support for TIRA, the interim administration. This discord grew following Reda’s appointment by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed beneath the Pretoria Agreement, which has not succeeded in stabilizing the region, underscoring ongoing disputes and unrest.

Violent clashes erupted in early March 2025, leading to Reda’s flight to Addis Ababa. TPLF security forces loyal to Debretsion took control of key towns like Mekelle and established governance structures amid military mobilization along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border. Tensions remain high despite negotiations resulting in new leadership appointments within TIRA, with significant troop movements suggesting an imminent confrontation.

Ethiopia’s longstanding tensions with Eritrea, exacerbated by both states supporting opposition groups, feed into the renewed conflict. Prime Minister Ahmed’s pursuit of Red Sea access compounds these issues, with Ethiopia’s recent agreements highlighting efforts to regain maritime influence. Eritrea’s support for factions in Tigray demonstrates its response to Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, seeing them as a sovereignty threat.

Ethiopia’s military, already deployed to address ethnic violence within its borders, faces constraints necessitating cautious engagement with Eritrea. A full-scale conflict could trigger widespread ethnic violence in Ethiopia, particularly involving groups like Fano, which opposed the state. Tigray’s instability could also have regional ramifications, intertwining with Sudan’s ongoing civil war, where both Eritrea and Ethiopia support rival factions.

Geopolitically, interest in the Horn of Africa is rising, with the United Arab Emirates supporting Ethiopian access to the Red Sea while Saudi Arabia expresses concerns over military expansion. Additionally, external powers such as Iran and Russia may manipulate the conflict dynamics to challenge Western-aligned governance. Notably, the emergence of jihadist groups in the region, such as al-Shabaab, could utilize the instability to extend their influence, thereby threatening further destabilization.

The renewed tensions in Tigray, driven by political discord and external strategic interests, pose a significant risk of escalating into broader conflict. Continued failure to address the provisions of the Pretoria Agreement and Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access exacerbate these tensions. The interplay between internal conflicts, geopolitical aspirations, and regional instability indicates a precarious situation with the potential for disastrous consequences for the region.

Original Source: thesoufancenter.org