Renewed Tensions in Tigray Risk Escalation into Broader Conflict
Civilians are evacuating Tigray amid escalating tensions between Eritrean and Ethiopian forces. The deteriorating situation is linked to an internal power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and ongoing discord between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Political and military maneuvers threaten to ignite a broader conflict, with the Horn of Africa’s stability at stake.
Civilians are fleeing from Ethiopia’s Tigray region due to fears of renewed conflict, as Eritrean and Ethiopian forces are increasing their military presence along the border. The situation poses the risk of escalating into a full-scale war driven by Ethiopia’s desire for Red Sea access and ongoing internal strife within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). This tension marks a significant decline in bilateral relations between both nations, just two years post the cessation of the devastating Tigray War.
The dynamics of conflict are exacerbated by a power struggle within the TPLF, especially between President Getachew Reda of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) and TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael. Eritrean support for Reda has intensified these divisions since his May 2023 appointment by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, leading to a fracturing within TIRA, and revived ambitions of TPLF factions seeking control over Tigray.
Recent violent clashes have resulted in Reda fleeing to Addis Ababa. This escalation has seen TPLF-aligned security forces seizing major towns in Tigray, including Mekelle, where they removed TIRA officials and established competing local governance structures. Citizens are withdrawing funds and evacuating from Tigray as military forces are mobilized along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border.
On March 17, negotiations held in Addis Ababa led to General Tadesse Werede being appointed the new leader of TIRA. Despite these diplomatic endeavors, hostilities persist, with the threat of re-engagement by demobilized fighters rising in response to tensions in the region. The ongoing troop movements indicate that a significant confrontation may be looming.
Since August, tensions heightened as the TPLF built parallel governance structures, and internal pressures on TIRA officials increased following the National Election Board of Ethiopia’s refusal to restore TPLF’s legal status. Key elements of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement remain unfulfilled, notably the disarmament of TDF, as unresolved territorial disputes continue to strain Ethiopia-Eritrea relations, further fueled by Eritrea’s efforts to undermine the agreement.
Both nations currently accuse each other of backing domestic opposition, with Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea access intensifying existing tensions. The unexpected diplomatic moves, such as Ethiopia’s recent agreement with Somaliland for sea access, signal a strategic maneuver against Eritrea. Eritrea interprets these developments as a direct affront to its sovereignty and has retaliated by supporting the ongoing conflict in Tigray.
Ethiopia’s military is facing challenges, deployed extensively in Amhara to address a rebellion led by Fano ethno-nationalists, limiting its capacity to engage in a broader conflict with Eritrea. Any outbreak of war may kindle further ethnic violence within Ethiopia, complicating its internal security landscape and potentially giving Eritrea a tactical advantage given Ethiopia’s current military constraints.
The instability stemming from Tigray and tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have implications for regional conflicts, particularly in Sudan, where both nations find themselves supporting opposing factions amid a civil war. There are reports of assistance being provided to the Sudanese Armed Forces by Tigrayan fighters and Eritrea, which exacerbates instability in areas like Western Tigray.
Internationally, Saudi Arabia expresses concerns over Ethiopia’s military developments along the Red Sea, whereas the United Arab Emirates has shown a willingness to engage with Ethiopia. Additionally, Russia and Iran are both interested in influencing the conflict to challenge Western-aligned governments. Concurrently, jihadist groups in the Sahel are likely to seize opportunities presented by this renewed tension to extend their operational reach, evidenced by collaborations between internal dissidents in Ethiopia and extremist elements in Somalia. The intersection of Ethiopia’s internal challenges, Eritrea’s strategic interests, and broader geopolitical dynamics position the Horn of Africa as a critical area for potential conflict escalation.
The renewed tensions in Tigray signal a precarious situation that could lead not only to domestic unrest but also to regional instability involving Ethiopia and Eritrea. The failure to effectively implement the Pretoria Agreement, coupled with competing power dynamics within the TPLF and external geopolitical interests, suggests an increased probability of conflict. The repercussions of such a conflict could extend far beyond national borders, impacting the Horn of Africa and beyond, as various internal and external actors vie for influence in a tumultuous environment.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
