Tigray Coup Heightens Fears of Renewed Conflict Between Ethiopia and Eritrea
The Tigray region is facing renewed fears of conflict due to internal power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front following a failed coup. Tensions are also rising between Ethiopia and Eritrea over access to the Red Sea, prompting military mobilization and warnings of imminent war. The situation necessitates immediate diplomatic intervention to prevent escalation.
Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which has been plagued by conflict since 2020, is facing renewed concerns of war following internal power struggles. Aregawi, who once operated a tour-guiding business, was thrust into combat during the Ethiopian civil unrest, and now fears for Tigray’s stability. He expressed anxiety, stating, “We do not want to become a battleground, but it seems like war is near, maybe even inevitable.”
The Ethiopian federal government and Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), reached a ceasefire in 2022 after a devastating conflict that killed approximately 600,000 and resulted in rampant sexual violence. However, critical provisions of the ceasefire remain unfulfilled, leading to divisions within the TPLF and escalating tensions.
Tensions reached a peak when Tigray’s interim president, Getachew Reda, attempted to dismiss three military leaders, sparking accusations of a coup. A rival faction of the TPLF, led by Debretsion Gebremichael, subsequently took control of government structures and the mayor’s office in Mekelle, prompting Reda to flee to the capital.
The situation in Tigray deteriorated into violence, with recent skirmishes resulting in casualties and widespread panic among residents. Many individuals are withdrawing their savings and planning to escape the region due to fears of impending conflict. “Fear and uncertainty prevail,” said an unnamed resident, highlighting the urgent desire for safety among the populace.
Additionally, tensions are flaring between Ethiopia and Eritrea, as Ethiopia seeks to regain access to the Red Sea—a matter of national significance for the landlocked nation. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration has intensified military mobilization near the Eritrean border amid warnings from regional leaders that conflict may erupt imminently.
Amidst the chaos, international observers have warned that the situation resembles “dry tinder waiting for a match that could ignite an interstate war between Ethiopia and Eritrea,” as articulated by former US and EU envoys in the region. Despite calls for peace, the Ethiopian government has made military preparations while asserting a desire for negotiations over port access.
As new leadership emerges in Tigray, their objectives to reclaim territories seized during the previous conflict may further complicate peace efforts. Analysts underscore the crucial need for resolution, as unresolved disputes could escalate into broader conflict. “If there is no agreement, the situation could certainly escalate,” stated Ahmed Soliman from Chatham House, emphasizing the precarious balance of power in the region.
The Tigray region of Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture, with potential conflicts looming due to internal power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and heightened tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Despite past agreements, the fulfillment of ceasefire provisions remains incomplete, contributing to instability. The lack of resolution could lead to further violence, necessitating urgent diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation and maintain regional peace.
Original Source: www.theguardian.com
