Ethiopia on the Brink: Abiy Ahmed’s Risky Power Play and Threats…

Ethiopia is facing a profound political and societal crisis, characterized by ethnic tensions, economic difficulties, and instability. The aftermath of the Tigray civil war has left deep divisions, particularly with the TPLF. The Amhara region’s growing resentment towards Abiy Ahmed and a new resistance movement complicate matters. Additionally, Ethiopia’s quest for maritime access, alongside escalating tensions with Eritrea and the risk of regional conflict, highlights the need for urgent diplomatic solutions.

Ethiopia is currently experiencing a profound political and societal crisis characterized by ethnic tensions and economic difficulties, leading to increasing instability. The civil war in the Tigray region (2020–2022) severely depleted the nation, and despite the temporary relief offered by the Pretoria peace agreement, significant divisions remain between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

The peace agreement has exacerbated internal divisions within the TPLF, with some factions willing to engage with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed while others fiercely oppose his leadership. This political maneuvering poses a heightened risk for renewed armed conflict in Tigray, which could significantly undermine the already fragile stability of Ethiopia.

Moreover, Abiy Ahmed faces growing resentment among the Amhara, Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group, who previously supported government forces during the Tigray war. Many Amhara militias feel disillusioned after the government began disarming them and failed to resolve longstanding land disputes. The unresolved territorial conflicts over Wolkait and Raya continue to create tensions within the region.

By 2023, a new resistance movement emerged in Amhara, resulting in frequent clashes between armed groups and the Ethiopian army. Accusations against Abiy Ahmed include attempts to impose Oromo dominance while neglecting Amhara interests, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency.

In addition to ethnic struggles, Ethiopia is grappling with a severe economic crisis marked by high inflation and rising unemployment. Many citizens face challenges affording basic foodstuffs, with economic instability driving individuals towards armed groups or seeking opportunities abroad. The government’s pressing need for economic reforms is further complicated by substantial debts to international creditors.

Analysts warn that the confluence of ethnic conflicts, political instability, and economic distress could render Ethiopia a failed state, undermining security and stability. Prime Minister Abiy, who initially inspired hope for reform, now finds himself criticized for his leadership, which some perceive as increasingly authoritarian. In response, he has attempted to redirect public attention through an assertive foreign policy, particularly by advocating for access to maritime routes.

Ethiopia has remained landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1993 and has heavily relied on Djibouti for foreign trade. Abiy Ahmed has invoked historical claims to argue for Ethiopia’s right to coastal access while bypassing diplomatic negotiations with neighboring countries.

Furthermore, on January 1, 2024, Ethiopia signed a controversial Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland, granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea in exchange for potential recognition. This agreement has incurred backlash from Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory and has threatened repercussions that could escalate regional tensions.

Compounding the challenges, there is evidence of troop buildups along Ethiopia’s border with Eritrea, leading to heightened insecurity. The historical enmity between the two nations suggests that any open conflict could draw in neighboring states, including Somalia and Djibouti.

The Horn of Africa is already a volatile region, and an armed conflict involving Ethiopia and Eritrea could trigger widespread instability. The escalation could also engage external actors, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, each pursuing distinct strategic interests in the region.

The potential humanitarian fallout would be catastrophic, with millions at risk of displacement amid rising hunger and poverty. Given existing environmental challenges, the onset of new conflict could propel the region into a dire situation.

It remains uncertain whether Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed can navigate these geopolitical challenges through diplomacy. Without pragmatic diplomatic efforts, however, the Horn of Africa faces serious threats of violence with far-reaching implications for regional and global stability. The international community must urgently work to de-escalate tensions and prevent a catastrophic crisis from emerging.

The article underscores the precarious situation in Ethiopia, marked by escalating ethnic tensions, political instability, and dire economic circumstances. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s leadership is increasingly questioned, with growing resistance from various ethnic groups. The risk of renewed conflict, particularly involving Eritrea, poses a significant threat to regional stability. Analysts urge the importance of diplomatic solutions to mitigate the risk of devastating humanitarian consequences and to avoid plunging the Horn of Africa into further chaos. Overall, as Ethiopia navigates these multifaceted challenges, the necessity for international intervention becomes clear in order to prevent a potential crisis.

Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu