China’s Emissions Target Missed: Implications for Global Climate Goals

China has missed its emissions reduction target for 2024, falling short of its goal to reduce carbon intensity by 3.9% with only a 3.4% decline. Given its role as the world’s largest polluter, this shortfall raises serious implications for global climate efforts. Despite advancements in renewable energy, increasing energy demands and reliance on coal pose substantial challenges to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 as promised by President Xi Jinping.

China has recently missed a crucial carbon emissions target, raising concerns regarding its commitment to achieve carbon neutrality. In 2024, the country’s carbon intensity—indicating emissions per unit of GDP—declined by only 3.4%, falling short of the official goal of 3.9%. This shortfall brings China’s long-term objective of reducing carbon intensity by 18% by 2025 into question, as delineated in the latest five-year plan by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

China’s emissions trajectory is significant for global climate goals, given its status as the largest polluter and its investments in renewable energy. President Xi Jinping has stated intentions to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. The effectiveness of these measures will influence international efforts to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5 degrees Celsius, a standard set by the United Nations.

Despite a growing economy with a 5% GDP increase in 2024, electricity demand surged by 6.8%, corresponding to a 0.8% rise in carbon emissions. The reliance on industrial growth has led to increased energy demands, aggravated by record heatwaves disrupting hydropower, compelling a shift back to coal. Nonetheless, significant strides have been made in renewable energy, fulfilling 14.5% of energy demand through wind and solar power in 2023 and addressing the majority of the incremental energy demand through renewable sources.

The growth in renewable energy is partially attributed to strong government backing from the CCP. Under Xi Jinping’s policies, there is a push towards an “ecological civilisation.” Moreover, the launch of China’s Emissions Trading Scheme, the largest globally, reflects efforts to manage emissions effectively. Recent calls for a transition towards innovative and high-value manufacturing signal a strategic shift away from traditional industrial practices.

However, while projections suggest that China may meet peak carbon emissions before 2030, the timeline for fully abandoning coal remains uncertain. Structural changes in the energy sector are essential for achieving long-term carbon neutrality. Experts caution that major reforms may not commence promptly and could extend beyond 2035, an issue of concern for future climate policy.

China’s failure to meet its emissions target casts doubt on its commitment to achieving carbon neutrality and poses a challenge for global climate efforts. Although advances in renewable energy are notable, the growing energy demand and continued reliance on coal highlight systemic issues within the country’s energy strategy. Timely structural reforms are crucial if China aims to reach its ambitious carbon neutrality goals by the designated timelines.

Original Source: www.aljazeera.com