Why Iraq Should Build Bridges With Its ‘New’ Neighbor, Syria
Iraq is reconsidering its relationship with Syria following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. While the Iraqi government is moving towards a pragmatic approach, factions opposing normalization create challenges. Economic ties and security concerns are central as Iraq seeks to stabilize the border and strengthen cooperation with its neighbor. Recent diplomatic engagements indicate potential for renewed economic and political connections.
In the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s ousting in Syria, the international community has cautiously aligned itself with Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, marking a notable change. The new Syrian leadership, comprised of former dissidents and technocrats, is eagerly seeking to mend ties abroad. Al-Sharaa’s diplomatic trips to various nations, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, hint at a potential for renewed relationships, although his attendance at the Arab Summit ignited some debate and controversy.
Iraq’s response to these rapid developments has not been uniform, reflecting divisions between its official government and powerful non-state actors. Initially, Baghdad reacted with caution; border crossings were shut down, and troops were positioned along the 630-kilometer border with Syria. However, the stance evolved, as Iraqi officials began making formal visits, demonstrating a recognition of Syria’s new regime. This approach culminated in an important meeting between Iraq’s Prime Minister and al-Sharaa in Doha, where an invitation to the Arab Summit was extended.
On the flip side, Iranian-affiliated factions in Iraq have been staunchly against any normalization efforts. Over fifty Iraqi parliament members, many affiliated with the Shiite Coordination Framework, signed a petition opposing al-Sharaa’s visit to Baghdad. Legislative member Mustafa Sanad went as far as organizing protests during the summit. Militia leaders linked to Iranian interests even posted threats online directed at the Syrian president, further complicating the narrative. There are ongoing disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining al-Sharaa’s credibility, particularly concerning his supposed ties to criminal activities in Iraq.
Tensions surfaced from a historical context laden with hostility. Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki accused Assad of orchestrating militant incursions into Iraq. Refugee movements, however, did soften relations before the Arab Spring, leading to significant trade between the two nations. But post-2011, the dynamics shifted drastically as the Assad regime clung to power and Iran strengthened its ties with both countries’ emerging factions.
Economic relations, despite a rocky security landscape, persisted. Iraq continued to source agricultural and consumer goods from Syria, though this trade diminished significantly post-2024. Yet, Iraq’s increased agricultural capacity could enhance food security significantly if it focused on solidifying economic agreements with the new Syrian government.
Baghdad’s recent high-profile delegations to Syria indicate a pragmatic shift in its approach towards fostering mutual economic benefits, particularly pointing towards the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline. Resuming this pipeline could lead to a substantial boost in Iraq’s oil export capacity, expanding its trade possibilities and decreasing reliance on current routes. Attention to Iraq’s energy sector could bolster its role as a crucial economic ally for Syria.
Nevertheless, security issues remain paramount. The border area is fraught with challenges, having witnessed the rise of extremist groups that have posed threats to civilian safety. While ISIS has been significantly weakened, residual impacts remain, including thousands of displaced persons still trapped in camps amid a climate of uncertainty. Stability is essential before Iraq can engage fully in economic partnerships with Syria.
Policy recommendations for the Iraqi government are clear. Engaging with the Syrian administration directly, opening negotiation channels and stabilizing the security landscape are critical steps. Iraq should consider formalizing its approach towards non-state actors to protect diplomatic efforts. Regular high-level visits to Syria could secure Iraq’s interests in future decision-making processes.
Nonetheless, Iraq must establish a sustainable legal framework to welcome Syrian workers into its labor market. This could not only help in local labor demands but also reintegrate wealth back into Syria’s economy, fostering interdependence that benefits both sides. With significant opportunities now presenting themselves, Iraq is in a unique position to redefine its relationship with Syria, navigating recovery and cooperation amidst regional complexities.
The transition period following the change in Syria’s regime highlights a pivotal moment for Iraq. The challenges of the past offer insight into potential pathways forward, underscoring that cooperation may yield a new era of peace and regional connectivity.
In conclusion, Iraq stands at a crucial juncture with Syria that could reshape regional dynamics significantly. By engaging with the new Syrian regime, fostering economic ties, and ensuring security along the border, Iraq can redefine its relationship with its neighbor. The need for legal frameworks to facilitate Syrian labor in Iraq and to maintain direct diplomatic communication is critical to deepening these ties. Embracing these opportunities could lead to mutual benefits, paving the way for a more stable and cooperative future between the two countries.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
