Libya Remains on Edge as Oil Majors Return

• Libya experiences serious political instability amid oil companies’ returns.
• International oil majors hope to stabilize Libya with investments.
• GNU under Dbeibah faces a direct challenge from the RADA militia.
• Tensions rise as RADA declares a willingness for military actions.
• Dbeibah’s authority seems to diminish amidst ongoing strife.

International Oil Majors Eye Libya Despite Tensions

Libya, a nation long plagued by political instability, remains in a precarious position as international oil companies make their way back into the fray. Observers are keeping a close watch on Libya’s ongoing struggle for power as various factions seek to regain control over crucial territories and institutions. Yet, despite the chaos, oil giants are showing renewed interest, spurred by the hope that their significant investments could lead to a more stable environment in the country. There is a strong argument to be made that global oil money might contribute to a semblance of peace, but current dynamics suggest the opposite is more likely unless major players, such as Benghazi and Tripoli’s governing bodies, can reach some form of compromise over the distribution of resources.

Confrontation Between GNU and RADA Escalates

The Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU), under the tenure of interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, now finds itself in a direct confrontation with the Special Deterrence Force (RADA). This militia, accused by Dbeibah of harboring over 120 wanted individuals—one of whom is an ICC-indicted commander—holds strategic control over Mitiga Airport and nearby prison facilities. In a bold public statement, Dbeibah has issued an ultimatum, demanding that RADA surrender its stronghold. However, RADA’s challenging response, framing their position as a “war of survival,” hints at potential escalation should the GNU persist in its demands. This new round of escalating tensions follows a spike in violent clashes between militia groups in Tripoli earlier this May and raises concerns about the GNU’s grip on power.

Dbeibah’s Authority Weakened Amidst Militia Challenges

These developments reveal a troubling trend for Dbeibah, as his authority appears increasingly tenuous. RADA is not usually affiliated with the eastern rival of Dbeibah, known as General Khalifa Haftar’s camp, which further complicates the dynamics on the ground. The fact that RADA is willing to challenge the GNU suggests that Dbeibah’s influence may be in decline. His plea for RADA to vacate Mitiga should not be misconstrued as a display of power; rather, it highlights just how precariously the GNU wields its authority. The stakes in this conflict are high, and without mechanisms for conflict resolution, the risk of a return to a civil war looms ever larger, threatening the already fragile stability of Libya’s political landscape.

In summary, Libya is at a critical juncture as the return of international oil majors coincides with rising tensions between rival governance factions. The GNU under Dbeibah faces significant challenges from the RADA militia, which underscores the declining control of the interim prime minister. As the situation unfolds, the likelihood of a negotiated settlement remains uncertain, raising serious questions about the future stability of Libya.