The Renewed Syrian Civil War: Implications for Israel and Regional Powers

The toppling of Assad’s regime may pose challenges for Israel, which prefers a weakened yet stable Syria. Amidst renewed fighting led by Sunni jihadists, Turkey seeks to influence the outcome for refugee resettlement while Iran and Russia face diminished roles. The complexities of these dynamics illustrate a critical juncture in Middle Eastern geopolitics, shaped significantly by recent escalations related to Hamas’s actions.

The revival of the Syrian civil war has caused significant concern within Israel as it grapples with the complexities of having Iranian-backed Shia jihadists or Turkish-backed Sunni jihadists at its borders. Consequently, Israel has opted to maintain a watchful distance from the conflict unless its security interests are overtly threatened, adhering to the perspective articulated by former Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir during the Iran-Iraq War, preferring to see both factions weaken each other.

The renewed hostilities, marked by a coalition of Sunni jihadists executing a coordinated attack on Aleppo’s city on November 27, represent a strategic pivot in a civil war that has implications extending beyond Syria. The recent escalation is a response to the broader geopolitical ramifications of Hamas’s assault on October 7, which has further destabilized the region and incited Hezbollah to engage Israel.

Israel’s strategic interests focus on neutralizing the Iranian-Hezbollah alliance while simultaneously recognizing that a dramatically weakened Assad regime could lead to instability. Although undermining Assad serves Israel’s long-term security goals by limiting Syria’s capacity to pose a conventional threat, the destabilization of Syrian leadership may lead to an unpredictable power vacuum, potentially infested with extremist elements.

Turkey’s backing of the anti-Assad rebels has provided Ankara with leverage to negotiate with Assad, primarily aimed at the repatriation of Syrian refugees and suppressing Kurdish militancy in northern Syria. Conversely, Iran has emerged as a major casualty in this evolving conflict, as the prospects of maintaining a direct channel for arms to Hezbollah diminish with the rebels gaining ground against Assad.

Russia, having previously intervened on Assad’s behalf, recognizes the critical strategic value of maintaining influence in Syria amidst its ongoing conflict with Ukraine. Russia’s past investments in Syria enable it to project power and counteract U.S. influence, making the current situation particularly alarming for the Kremlin as the border dynamics shift further against Assad.

In summary, as the Syrian civil war reignites, a complex interplay of regional interests shapes the conflict, compelling Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia to navigate their respective goals amidst breeding instability, with Israel preferring a predictable, albeit weakened, Assad regime over the chaos that would arise from a power shift towards radical factions.

The article discusses the implications of the renewed Syrian civil war for Israel and regional actors. The civil war, which originated in 2011, has evolved to involve multiple factions with divergent motives, not least following the recent escalation instantiated by Hamas’s October 7 assault against Israel. As the conflict continues, key players including Israel, Turkey, Iran, and Russia recalibrate their interests in a landscape complexified by internal and external pressures, illustrating the intricate web of alliances and rivalries that characterize the Middle Eastern geopolitical arena.

The renewed civil strife in Syria emerging from Hamas’s actions is reshaping regional dynamics, compelling stakeholders to recalibrate their strategies. While Israel aims to avoid a complete collapse of Assad to prevent chaos, Turkey seeks to leverage the conflict for its own regional ambitions, and both Iran and Russia face potential losses in their influence. The intertwining of these interests underscores the precarious balance in a volatile region where any decisive shift may have far-reaching consequences.

Original Source: www.jpost.com