The Resurgence of Conflict in Syria: Assessing the Rebel Offensive and Assad’s Future
The Syrian conflict has escalated following recent events in the Middle East, with the rebel coalition led by HTS launching a significant offensive against the Assad regime. Despite recent territorial gains for the rebels, the Assad regime retains support and control over major areas, prompting concerns for civilians amid renewed violence. The necessity for a political resolution remains urgent, as past efforts have failed to produce lasting peace in Syria.
The ongoing conflict in Syria has witnessed a resurgence, partially fueled by the broader upheaval in the Middle East following the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2022. Despite Bashar al-Assad’s resilient hold on power over the past decade, bolstered by allies such as Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, the recent offensive led by rebel factions—including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—has caught observers by surprise. This coalition has swiftly captured significant territory, including the historic citadel of Aleppo, suggesting shifts in control amidst a persistently volatile landscape.
Despite appearing momentarily sidelined by recent geopolitical events, the Syrian civil war has not reached a resolution. The Assad regime, although controlling major cities and highways, has not fully regained its pre-2011 dominance. Currently, HTS, which has distanced itself from its past ties to al-Qaeda, has engaged in an offensive dubbed Operation Repelling the Aggression, attempting to unify rebels under a more moderate facade. This strategy seeks to appeal to war-weary Syrians wary of extremist ideologies.
The dynamics of the conflict are further complicated by external actors such as the United States and Turkey, which maintain their influence through regional proxies. Reports indicate that HTS forces have acquired significant military supplies and advanced into territory crucial to the Assad regime’s stability. However, the regime remains poised to counterattack with its air power in preparation for a protracted struggle against the rebels.
The recent developments have raised alarms within the international community, prompting concerns about the humanitarian impact on civilians. UN officials have highlighted the need for a political resolution to the conflict, underscoring the failure to implement previous peace initiatives. While Assad still enjoys a degree of support among segments of the Syrian populace who view him as a preferable alternative to potential jihadist rule, the regime’s long-term survival is contingent upon managing growing internal dissent and external pressures.
The Syrian civil war, which erupted in 2011, stemmed from widespread protests calling for democratic reforms. The ensuing conflict saw various factions—ranging from secular rebel groups to extremist jihadist organizations—compete for control, resulting in a humanitarian disaster. Assad’s regime, initially under threat, became reinforced through military alliances with nations like Russia and Iran. However, the shifting geopolitical landscape, particularly with recent events in Israel and Gaza, has reignited tensions and opened opportunities for rebel groups to make significant military strides against the regime.
In conclusion, while the recent rebel offensive in Syria signals a dramatic turn, it would be premature to dismiss Bashar al-Assad’s regime entirely. The underlying complexities of the conflict, including the floundering humanitarian situation and geopolitical interests, highlight that the Syrian war remains unresolved. The potential for internal divisions among anti-Assad factions and renewed external pressures underscores the fragility of any dominance the regime may maintain. The international community’s recommendations for a genuine political process must be revisited to foster future stability in Syria.
Original Source: www.bbc.co.uk
