Egypt and UAE’s Competing Interests Amid Sudan’s Civil War

In Sudan’s ongoing civil war, Egypt supports the Sudanese Armed Forces, whereas the UAE backs the Rapid Support Forces. This rivalry has intensified a humanitarian disaster, driven ongoing sanctions against key leaders, and complicated regional security dynamics. Egypt’s focus on army stability contrasts with the UAE’s resource-driven strategy, leading to significant geopolitical implications.

In the midst of Sudan’s civil war, an underreported struggle arises between Egypt and the UAE. Egypt backs the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), while the UAE supports the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), complicating the humanitarian crisis worsened by a conflict that began on April 15, 2023. The situation has escalated into a devastating humanitarian disaster, leading to potential state collapse in Sudan.

The Biden administration sanctioned both RSF leader Hemedti, citing genocide, and SAF General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan for obstructing peace. Evidence from the United Nations and U.S. investigators implicates the UAE in supporting the RSF; however, Abu Dhabi maintains a facade of neutrality, a stance contested by U.S. officials.

Egypt’s backing of SAF has become increasingly apparent, with Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty underscoring its importance in a joint press conference. He reiterated Egypt’s intention to enhance the capabilities of the Sudanese army amidst a backdrop of regional security cooperation with Eritrea and Somalia.

Despite shared regional interests, Egypt and UAE’s divergent approaches to Sudan’s conflict highlight their unusual rivalry. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has depended on Gulf support since 2013, reinforced by substantial UAE investments. Nevertheless, Egypt views the SAF as a critical stabilizing force, diverging from the UAE’s backing of the RSF.

The influx of over 1.2 million Sudanese refugees into Egypt exacerbates the crisis for Cairo, which fears a total collapse of Sudan could lead to further mass migrations. Additionally, Egypt’s control over Nile water resources hangs in the balance as Sudan’s instability undermines its negotiation position with Ethiopia, its historical rival.

Sudan remains vital for Egypt in countering threats posed by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Recent statements from Sudan’s foreign minister affirm this alliance amid concerns of escalating conflict unless a resolution is found.

The cooperative framework agreement involving upstream Nile Basin countries presents a challenge to Egypt’s bargaining power, particularly following South Sudan’s accession. Egypt’s weakening position sparked a pivot toward forming regional security alliances, collaborating with Somalia and Eritrea to bolster its stance against Ethiopian interests.

The UAE’s strategic engagement in Sudan stands imperiled as the RSF struggles for control. Previously focused on exploiting Sudan’s resources through gold trade and port developments, the ongoing conflict has jeopardized this vision. Recent statements imply the UAE may need to revise its approach significantly to maintain influence in the region.

Amid the conflict, Egypt regards the SAF as essential for future governance in Sudan, opposing any role for paramilitary groups like the RSF. In contrast, the UAE’s resource-driven perspective signifies a fundamental divergence in their strategies.

Recognizing the challenges ahead, Sudan’s army-led government seeks direct discussions with the UAE, conditional upon the cessation of support for the RSF, which poses economic and reputational difficulties for Abu Dhabi.

Egypt appears poised to mediate between Sudan and the UAE, potentially bridging gaps in narratives. Such diplomatic efforts aim to foster stability and a ceasefire, navigating the rocky terrain left in the conflict’s wake.

American diplomatic leverage may play a crucial role in encouraging cooperation between Egypt and the UAE, essential for preventing a deepened crisis in Sudan. The ongoing factional support could otherwise lead to a more profound and brutal civil conflict.

The article examines the complex, often conflicting interests of Egypt and the UAE in the ongoing civil strife in Sudan, highlighting their divergent strategies. While Egypt supports the Sudanese Armed Forces as a source of stability, the UAE backs paramilitary groups for resource exploitation. This opposition complicates the already dire humanitarian crisis resulting from widespread violence and turmoil in the region.

In conclusion, the unfolding power struggle between Egypt and the UAE amid Sudan’s civil war reveals the intricacies of regional politics and their implications for stability. As both nations pursue divergent goals, mediation efforts may be vital to foster dialogue and an eventual ceasefire. The urgent need for coordinated international intervention remains crucial to mitigate the humanitarian fallout from this crisis.

Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org