January 2025 Records Unprecedented Warmth with 1.75°C Anomaly Despite La Nina
January 2025 is projected to be the warmest January ever recorded, with temperatures 1.75°C above the pre-industrial average, despite ongoing La Nina conditions. Recent records in Jamaica and Madagascar highlight the global impact of this anomaly. Climate experts express concern as this trend contradicts historical precedents where La Nina typically leads to cooler temperatures, prompting a reevaluation of climate models and expectations for the year ahead.
January 2025 has emerged as potentially the warmest January recorded, featuring an average monthly temperature anomaly of 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, as indicated by analyses conducted by climate scientists using the ERA5 dataset. The warmer-than-normal temperatures were observed globally, affecting both the northern and southern hemispheres. Notably, Jamaica and Madagascar reported record-breaking temperatures on January 31, showcasing the widespread impact of these anomalies.
This unprecedented warmth occurred despite the ongoing La Nina phenomenon in the tropical Pacific, which typically leads to cooler global temperatures. Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, highlighted that January 2025 broke previous records, surpassing the 2024 figure, defying the expectations typically associated with La Nina conditions. Historically, record-setting January figures often coincided with El Nino events, making this current anomaly particularly striking.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recognized the last El Nino event in July 2023, which concluded in June 2024, contributing to 2024 being one of the hottest years on record with a temperature anomaly of 1.55°C. Following the La Nina conditions that began in December 2024, forecasts for 2025 anticipated a return to cooler temperatures; however, January’s warmth contradicts those predictions.
As Hausfather noted, both 2023 and 2024 experienced exceptionally high temperatures near or exceeding the 1.5°C mark relative to pre-industrial values. He previously anticipated 2025 to be cooler relative to these years, driven by the fading influence of the El Nino event. However, the anomalous warmth of January raises concerns about potential temperature trends for the remainder of the year.
Hausfather pointed out that, traditionally, January temperatures under La Nina conditions are lower compared to those in El Nino or neutral years, with January 2025 standing as an exception. He warns that this unprecedented start could indicate that global temperatures in 2025 may exceed earlier expectations, challenging normative climatic assessments.
Climate scientists have been increasingly concerned about global temperature anomalies influenced by various natural cycles, notably the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This climate phenomenon is characterized by alternating warm (El Nino) and cool (La Nina) periods, which typically affect global temperatures significantly. The recent temperature spike, particularly during January 2025, is notable given the concurrent La Nina conditions, warranting further investigation into underlying factors driving sustained warmth despite expectations of cooling.
The record warmth of January 2025, with a temperature anomaly of 1.75°C above pre-industrial levels, poses significant implications for climate forecasting. This occurrence defies typical predictions associated with La Nina conditions, raising concerns about future temperature trends in a year that was initially anticipated to be cooler. As climate dynamics evolve, continuous monitoring and analysis remain essential to understand global warming patterns and greenhouse gas influences.
Original Source: www.downtoearth.org.in
