Trump’s Gaza Plans: Risks and Implications for Jordan’s Stability

Trump’s call to ‘clean out’ Gaza poses significant risks for Jordan, potentially leading to increased internal tensions as the kingdom resists accepting Palestinian refugees. Jordanian officials, emphasizing their red lines, warn that forcibly relocating Palestinians into Jordan could destabilize the nation, a concern rooted in historical precedents. The U.S. must reconsider its approach to maintain Jordan’s stability amid these regional dynamics, recognizing its critical role in regional geopolitics.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent declaration to “clean out” Gaza has sparked particular concern in Jordan. During a January 25 call, Trump urged King Abdullah II to accept a significant influx of Palestinian refugees, potentially leading to ethnic cleansing in Gaza. For Jordan, this is a longstanding issue, but the contemporary geopolitical climate amplifies its risks, including heightening internal tensions that could destabilize the kingdom.

While Trump’s intentions regarding the evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza remain unclear, Jordan perceives this as a serious threat. Historically, accepting Palestinian refugees has been a red line for Jordan, a point emphasized by Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, who stated, “Jordan is for Jordanians, and Palestine is for Palestinians.” This sentiment extends beyond Gaza to concerns regarding displaced Palestinians potentially entering Jordan from the West Bank amidst escalated violence from Israel.

King Abdullah has made it unequivocal that Jordan will not accommodate refugees from Gaza or Egypt. The king looks to the current Biden administration for support against Israeli plans to displace Palestinians; however, the impending return of a Trump administration may shift the U.S. stance. Trump’s remarks have been lauded by far-right Israeli politicians, indicating a collective push for the forced relocation of Palestinians out of Gaza.

The pressures from Trump’s assertions could provoke a confrontation between Jordan and both Israel and the United States, as Jordan is likely to resist any measures that threaten its stability. Historically, Jordan has been thrust into a complex situation regarding Palestinian refugees, dating back to the 1948 conflict when it absorbed waves of displaced individuals, marking their presence as potentially permanent.

Currently, an estimated 55% to 70% of Jordan’s population has Palestinian roots, significantly affecting national stability and resources. Jordan’s demographic challenges are compounded by historical tensions, such as the violent confrontation during the Black September in 1970 between Jordan’s forces and the PLO, illustrating the core national security priority for the kingdom.

Trump’s proposal risks rekindling painful historical experiences for Jordan, potentially leading to the infiltration of Hamas into Jordanian territory, reminiscent of past conflicts. In light of Hamas’s enhanced popularity following recent attacks, any perceived concession to external pressures could incite public unrest in Jordan, endangering the country’s internal cohesion.

Previously, Trump has attempted to impose policies on Jordan, notably when he moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem against Jordan’s objections. Abdullah’s rejection of Trump’s policies regarding Israeli annexation has also highlighted Jordan’s unwillingness to compromise its stability. A future Trump administration may react negatively to Jordan if it resists pressures regarding the refugee issue, which could lead to punitive measures.

Threatening Jordan’s stability carries significant ramifications not just for the kingdom but also for the broader region. The fragility of Jordan was notably exposed during a coup attempt in 2021, catching international leaders by surprise and prompting rapid support declarations. Thus, Jordan’s role as the last bastion of stability in the Levant remains critical for both U.S. and regional interests.

As Israel maneuvers its operations in Gaza and the West Bank, Jordan’s capacity to mediate humanitarian efforts and maintain regional stability is paramount. With ongoing tensions due to the Israeli-Lebanese situation and the instability in Syria, Jordan emerges as a vital player capable of facilitating aid and reconstruction efforts in the region.

If pressured into accepting the forced relocation of Palestinians from Gaza, Jordan could lose its significance as a U.S. ally. A failure to uphold cooperative ties could destabilize Israel’s security, as popular discontent might drive Jordan away from maintaining relations with Israel, exposing its border to myriad security threats. Moreover, this could compel the U.S. to enhance its military interventions in the region, diverting critical resources away from other global priorities.

The Trump administration is cautioned against mismanaging its relations with Jordan during its second term, as a crisis could occur at a moment of vulnerability. In the absence of a well-established governing structure, the U.S. risks instigating further instability. To mitigate potential disruption, U.S. aid must be aimed at bolstering Jordanian economic stability and managing refugee service provisions effectively.

In summary, safeguarding peace in Gaza while preventing the forced migration of Palestinians to Jordan is paramount. Sustaining a mutually beneficial partnership with Jordan is crucial for U.S. interests in the Middle East, safeguarding regional stability, and ensuring that Jordan’s internal dynamics remain intact and resilient against external pressures.

Jordan’s geopolitical landscape is heavily influenced by the presence of Palestinian refugees. Historically, the country has faced various waves of Palestinian displacement since the establishment of Israel. In recent years, there has been considerable concern that an influx of more refugees could destabilize Jordan, particularly amidst ongoing regional tensions and Trump’s recent declarations regarding Gaza. Understanding Jordan’s delicate demographic balance and its historical experiences with refugee crises is crucial to grasping the current situation and its implications for regional stability.

The implications of Trump’s call for Jordan to accept more Palestinian refugees could profoundly affect both Jordan and regional security. Jordan’s ability to maintain internal stability amidst external pressures is crucial for U.S. interests in the Middle East. Navigating these dynamics will require careful diplomatic engagement and clear support from the U.S. to ensure that Jordan remains a partner in promoting regional peace and stability.

Original Source: foreignpolicy.com