Ecuador’s Elections: Security Challenges Amid Rising Criminal Violence
Ecuador’s upcoming elections are overshadowed by soaring criminal violence, with homicides up 430% in five years. President Noboa’s military response has had mixed results, and while his popularity remains high, the political landscape is increasingly influenced by crime. A comprehensive strategy addressing the roots of organized crime is crucial for effective governance and security improvements in Ecuador.
As Ecuadorians prepare for elections on February 9, security and escalating criminal violence have taken precedence over pressing issues like unemployment and energy shortages. The nation, once known for its peacefulness, has witnessed an alarming 430% rise in homicides, a doubling of femicides, and a significant surge in youth violence and extortion over the past five years. This deterioration in security not only burdens Ecuadorians but also adversely impacts the United States by empowering criminal organizations and intensifying migration pressures.
In the wake of violent incidents in Guayaquil, President Daniel Noboa announced an ‘internal armed conflict,’ designating 22 criminal groups as terrorist organizations. Implementing a state of emergency, Noboa deployed the military to confront these groups, established military control over prisons, and targeted their leadership. An April 2024 referendum endorsed stringent ‘mano dura’ measures, resulting in a notable 16.5% decline in homicides. Yet, the strategy has been criticized for its incomplete approach, necessitating a comprehensive security framework that addresses the entire criminal ecosystem.
Ecuador’s military campaign faced backlash for alleged human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings and mass detentions. While initiatives like ‘Plan Fénix’ managed to apprehend some high-profile crime leaders, it failed to disrupt lower-tier networks, leading to increased violence as criminal groups diversified. The emergence of splinter factions, such as Los Pepes, exacerbates violence and complicates security responses. Criminal organizations have expanded their activities beyond drug trafficking, delving into extortion, kidnapping, illegal mining, and more.
The fragmentation of criminal groups has altered the dynamics with transnational crime syndicates. Local groups are increasingly asserting themselves rather than being mere facilitators for groups like the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG. This shift raises concerns regarding escalating violence as local actors fiercely compete for control. With their ambitions now international, Ecuador’s criminal factions threaten the established balance within transnational drug trafficking networks.
Moreover, organized crime in Ecuador is increasingly infiltrating the political sphere through violence and corruption. Assassinations targeting political candidates who oppose crime groups have surged, undermining the state’s legitimacy. Growing ties between government officials and criminal entities, coupled with a fragile justice system riddled with corruption, hinder effective governance and accountability.
President Noboa has leveraged his tough policies to maintain political support, enjoying significant approval ratings ahead of the elections. His contender, Luisa González, has proposed a rights-based approach while advocating for police reform without addressing military involvement. Both candidates have expressed intentions to utilize technology in combating crime.
To mitigate the escalating violence and challenge the influence of criminal organizations, Ecuador must adopt a multidimensional security strategy. This approach should prioritize dismantling criminal networks beyond high-value targeting and expand anti-crime initiatives to include illegal mining and various forms of trafficking. Enhancing the judicial system and investing in interagency collaborations are essential to effectively combat crime and empower local communities.
International assistance, particularly from the United States, can bolster efforts to modernize Ecuador’s security infrastructure and address illegal activities at borders and ports. Strategic investments in technology and community engagement are vital in restoring trust in governance and ensuring sustainable approaches to tackling organized crime without infringing on human rights. Restructuring Ecuador’s security mechanisms for greater accountability and efficiency will be critical in navigating this complex landscape.
Ecuador is experiencing a seismic shift in its security landscape as it approaches presidential elections amidst unprecedented levels of criminal violence. Once seen as a peaceful nation, its crime rates have dramatically surged, affecting not only the local populace but also U.S. interests due to rising threats from transnational crime. The government, led by President Daniel Noboa, is employing militarized strategies to combat organized crime, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive reforms to restore safety and stability.
Ecuador’s growing insecurity poses significant challenges not only for the nation but also for the broader region and international stakeholders, particularly the United States. A multifaceted approach that incorporates law enforcement, judicial strengthening, and community engagement is essential for a successful resolution. Fostering resilience against organized crime while respecting human rights and promoting socio-economic development will be key in reclaiming public safety and governance.
Original Source: www.brookings.edu
