Reviving the 1.5°C Climate Target Through Accountability Analysis

The article discusses the urgent need to address the potential overshoot of the 1.5°C climate target, proposing an accountability framework rooted in historical emissions. It highlights the responsibilities of various nations based on the new metric of “additional carbon accountability.” The findings stress the importance of immediate action from high-emission countries to meet climate goals, though political will is currently lacking.

Recent discussions have raised serious concerns about the viability of the 1.5°C climate target, with various sources indicating that current emissions rates are jeopardizing this goal. In response, a study published in Nature Communications proposes a metric to allocate responsibility for limiting long-term warming to 1.5°C, particularly in instances of temporary overshoot. This framework aligns with the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibility and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), integral to international climate negotiations under the UNFCCC.
The CBDR-RC principle acknowledges that all nations play a role in combating climate change; however, they hold differing responsibilities based on their historical emissions and capacity to take action. A new indicator, termed “additional carbon accountability,” evaluates countries’ responsibilities by measuring their past emissions against their population’s cumulative per capita emissions
Currently, if nations fulfill their existing climate targets, the fossil carbon budget necessary to meet the 1.5°C benchmark would be surpassed by an alarming 576 billion tonnes of CO₂. To adhere to this objective, significant emissions reductions or carbon dioxide removal strategies, such as afforestation and advanced technologies, are imperative, particularly for the EU, China, the USA, and fifteen other nations.
The study illustrates that the EU, for instance, needs to mitigate or offset an extra 48 GtCO₂, while China and the USA face larger responsibilities of 150 GtCO₂ and 167 GtCO₂, respectively. While the principles of fairness in the Paris Agreement lack a cohesive implementation framework, this new accountability indicator is essential to delineate what each country must contribute to closing the emissions gap.
High-income nations are historically responsible for significant emissions, whereas some upper-middle-income countries have considerable projected future emissions. Notably, 26% of anticipated emissions originate from high-income nations, while 38% develop from upper-middle-income nations. Nations like China and Iran can play pivotal roles in fulfilling their accountability by adopting stricter reduction measures, while countries with substantial historical emissions, such as the USA and the EU, must also engage in carbon dioxide removal.
The current outcome of the COP29 on climate financing highlights the divide between developed and developing countries, whereas this accountability model focuses on individual national responsibilities. By adopting this indicator, responsibility is assigned based on additional carbon accountability, facilitating transparency without escalating the funding disputes. Estimated costs for adjusting to CDR or reductions are significant; for Iran, these costs could exceed 1,200% of its GDP.
Despite a surrounding political environment that emphasizes meeting existing commitments, there remains a notable absence of discourse surrounding historical carbon debts. There is a prevailing skepticism about nations like Russia and Iran taking substantial action to reduce emissions or acknowledge their past contributions to carbon pollution. Nonetheless, the potential for change cannot be completely ruled out, as global dynamics can shift.
Every fraction of a degree is crucial in the climate crisis, and this accountability indicator can be adapted for various temperature targets. Consequently, the findings from this study serve to heighten pressure on nations with escalating future emissions to adhere to accountability measures, and assist in holding nations with extensive carbon debts responsible for their past emissions.

The study highlights the critical need for countries to sharpen their climate targets in order to adhere to the 1.5°C goal. Employing the additional carbon accountability metric allows for clearer responsibility allocation among nations based on their historical and future emissions. However, without a substantial political will to act, particularly from high-income nations, the achievement of these climate objectives remains in jeopardy.

Original Source: www.climatechangenews.com