China Fails to Meet Essential Climate Goals as Emissions Increase
China has failed to hit its 2024 climate target, with emissions rising slightly, largely due to coal reliance despite a surge in renewables. Carbon intensity fell by only 3.4 percent, lagging behind the 3.9 percent goal. Analysts warn of increasing difficulty in meeting long-term emission goals as industrial growth strains clean energy progress.
China has failed to achieve a crucial climate target for 2024, with emissions rising slightly amidst persistent coal usage, despite significant increases in renewable energy sources, as reported by official data. The National Bureau of Statistics revealed that carbon intensity dropped by 3.4 percent last year, falling short of the 3.9 percent target necessary to meet commitments under the Paris climate agreement. Moreover, this performance places China behind on its objective of an 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025.
Although carbon emissions increased marginally compared to the previous year, touching upon speculation about reaching peak emissions by 2030, achieving the Paris target of reducing carbon intensity by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 appears increasingly challenging. Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, remarked that even with positive predictions for 2025, carbon intensity would need to decline by 22 percent during the period from 2026 to 2030 to fulfill this goal.
Despite being the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, China is also advancing rapidly in renewable energy capacity. The nation’s objectives include peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and attaining net zero by 2060. Analysts had anticipated that a combination of slowing economic growth and fast-tracked renewable energy developments might lead to a reduction in emissions for 2024. The determination of reaching emissions peaks will require further data collection spanning several years.
The growth of China’s energy-intensive industrial sector is hindering progress towards these climate goals. According to Muyi Yang, Senior Energy Analyst for Asia at Ember, escalating energy demands from industrial growth have outpaced the development of clean energy infrastructure. He emphasized the pressing need for reforms that enhance energy market flexibility and expand clean energy deployment to ensure that industrial growth does not compromise sustainable energy development.
The total energy consumption reported in 2024 reflected a 4.3 percent increase compared to 2023, with coal supplying more than half of the country’s energy. While there has been a marked rise in renewable installations, coal usage remains prevalent. Yang indicated that China is nearing a point where increased electricity demand will be fulfilled primarily through renewable sources. At that juncture, coal power is likely to decline in absolute terms.
Beijing is expected to release details concerning its 15th Five-Year Plan, covering the period from 2026 to 2030, later this year, which should outline revised emission and energy goals. In February, China was scheduled to present its updated emissions targets, referred to as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), under the Paris Agreement, though it did miss that deadline. Nonetheless, UN officials anticipate that most NDCs will be submitted in the upcoming year.
In summary, China’s recent climate data indicates that the nation has not only missed key targets but is also struggling to reduce carbon emissions effectively. With coal remaining dominant despite significant renewable investments, analysts stress the need for systemic changes to achieve future climate pledges. As emissions growth continues in the industrial sector, the importance of forthcoming Five-Year plans and updated NDCs cannot be overstated for assessing China’s commitment to its climate objectives.
Original Source: www.france24.com
