China Fails to Meet Key Climate Targets as Emissions Slightly Rise

China’s official data indicates a missed climate target for 2024, with carbon intensity reductions falling short of goals. While coal remains a dominant energy source, renewable energy installations rise significantly, raising concerns about meeting future climate commitments under the Paris agreement. Experts warn that without substantial reforms, China may struggle to achieve its pledges by 2030.

According to recent data from Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China did not meet its crucial climate target for 2024. Overall carbon emissions in the country, which is the world’s second-largest economy, saw a slight increase despite making record additions to renewable energy. This situation indicates that China is not on track to fulfill key commitments outlined in the Paris climate agreement.

Carbon intensity, which measures carbon dioxide emissions relative to GDP, decreased by 3.4 percent in 2024, falling short of the official target of a 3.9 percent reduction. This performance also places China significantly behind its objective to achieve an 18 percent reduction in emissions between 2020 and 2025. The report indicates that carbon emissions have slightly risen when compared to the previous year, leading to speculation that peak emissions may have already been reached.

Experts, including Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, have expressed concerns regarding China’s ability to meet its promise of reducing carbon intensity by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030. “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target,” Myllyvirta stated, emphasizing that this is a critical test of China’s commitment to the Paris agreement.

China, while being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is also a leader in renewable energy. The country intends to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2060. Analysts had previously theorized that a slowdown in growth combined with rapid installment of renewable energy could lead to a decline in emissions for 2024. However, determining the peak for emissions will require additional data and may only be confirmed retrospectively.

The growth of China’s carbon-intensive industrial sector continues to impede progress towards climate objectives. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, noted that “rapid industrial growth has driven energy demand to increase at a pace that outstrips the buildup of clean energy infrastructure.” Adjustments are necessary, including increased market flexibility and enhanced clean energy resources, to ensure sustainability in energy production.

The NBS report highlighted a 4.3 percent increase in total energy consumption compared to 2023. Although coal remains a significant contributor to carbon emissions, it supplied over half of the nation’s energy, while renewable sources also experienced substantial growth last year. Yang challenges the narrative, stating that China is nearing a point where future electricity demand could be met entirely by renewables, potentially leading to a decrease in coal power.

Beijing is anticipated to announce its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later this year, which is expected to set updated emissions and energy goals. Furthermore, the country is due to submit revised emissions targets under the Paris agreement, labeled as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), although it missed its deadline. UN officials expect most nations, including China, to present their updated NDCs this year.

In summary, China’s failure to meet its climate target for 2024 reflects ongoing challenges in achieving significant reductions in carbon emissions. Despite strong advancements in renewable energy, reliance on coal and industrial growth poses obstacles to reaching climate commitments. Without substantial reforms towards a cleaner energy infrastructure, meeting future targets remains uncertain. As China approaches critical thresholds in energy production and emissions, the upcoming Five-Year Plan and revised NDCs will be pivotal in shaping the nation’s climate strategy moving forward.

Original Source: www.france24.com