China Misses Climate Target with Rising Emissions Amid Coal Dependence
China missed its key climate target for 2024 as emissions rose slightly due to coal’s continued dominance despite significant renewable energy additions. The carbon intensity reduction fell short of official goals, raising concerns about future commitments under the Paris Agreement. Analysts forecast difficulties in achieving upcoming climate pledges, stressing the need for substantial infrastructure changes.
In 2024, China failed to meet a crucial climate target as emissions increased slightly, primarily due to the continued reliance on coal despite achieving record levels of renewable energy. This data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), indicates that China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is not on track to fulfill its commitments outlined in the Paris climate agreement.
According to the NBS, carbon intensity fell by 3.4 percent in 2024, falling short of the government’s target of 3.9 percent and its broader objective of an 18 percent reduction in emissions from 2020 to 2025. Despite a modest rise in carbon emissions compared to previous years, there are hypotheses suggesting that China may have already reached peak emissions ahead of the slated target of 2030.
Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, stated, “This is a key test of China’s commitment to its pledges under the agreement.” He emphasized that to achieve a 65 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030, a 22 percent decrease is required from 2026 to 2030, underscoring the challenges ahead.
Although China is the largest emitter, it is concurrently recognized for its substantial renewable energy initiatives, aiming for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and net-zero by 2060. Analysts have posited that emissions growth may plateau as renewable energy installations increase, although definitive conclusions will necessitate additional data over the coming years.
David Fishman, a senior manager at the Lantau Group, remarked that the structural conditions required for meaningful emissions reduction do not appear to be in place. He cautioned that without substantial increases in renewable energy infrastructure, coal consumption would persist, albeit at a slower growth rate, before anticipated nuclear and hydro resources are utilized around 2030.
Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at Ember, pointed out that robust industrial growth is impeding climate goal advancements, as energy demands have surged faster than the expansion of clean energy resources. He stated that reforms in the energy market, including enhanced flexibility and renewable energy infrastructure, are essential to ensure sustainable industrial growth.
The NBS report revealed that total energy consumption rose by 4.3 percent from 2023, with coal supplying over half of the country’s energy needs, despite a significant increase in renewable sources. Yang indicated that China is nearing a pivotal moment where new electricity demand may soon be met entirely by renewables, leading to an eventual decline in coal power.
Later this year, Beijing will announce details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026-2030, which is expected to include updated emissions and energy targets. China also intends to submit new emissions targets under the Paris Agreement, which were delayed, although UN officials anticipate most submissions will occur this year.
In summary, China’s failure to meet its 2024 climate target reflects challenges in reducing emissions amid a persistent reliance on coal, despite significant growth in renewable energy. While there are indications that emissions may stabilize, the path to meeting future climate commitments remains fraught with difficulty. Analysts stress the need for continued reforms and infrastructure development to align with the nation’s ambitious climate goals by 2030 and beyond.
Original Source: www.news-journal.com
