Can Lebanese-Syrian Relations Transition Beyond the Assad and Hezbollah Era?
Lebanon and Syria face a transformative period after the fall of Assad’s regime. The new leadership may facilitate improved relations, yet risks of sectarian conflict and extremist resurgence pose significant challenges. The relationship is further complicated by Israeli actions and historical grievances, necessitating careful management for future stability and cooperation.
Lebanon and Syria share a complex fate, intertwined by their shared history and politics. With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the emergence of interim leadership in Syria and Lebanon, a potential for re-establishing bilateral relations exists. However, significant sectarian tensions and unresolved conflicts pose substantial challenges as both countries navigate this transition.
The fall of Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, was met with enthusiasm in Lebanon, reflecting a long-standing historical rivalry following a 29-year Syrian occupation of Lebanon that began in 1976. After the withdrawal in 2005, Syria continued to influence Lebanon primarily through Hezbollah, a powerful Iranian-backed group that benefited from Syrian support.
Hezbollah, which had relied on Syria as a support base for arms and strategic alignment with Iran, perceives the new Syrian government as a threat. Actors within the new Syrian regime have openly expressed hostility toward Hezbollah, especially following key changes that weakened Hezbollah’s standing within Lebanon and the broader region.
Yeghia Tashjian from the Issam Fares Institute noted that “Hezbollah lost its main Syrian regional power base and key political support system when support for the Assad regime ended.” This loss has arguably deepened Hezbollah’s vulnerabilities amid increasing dissent within Lebanon over its role in the Syrian conflict, which has strained Lebanon’s already faltering economic resources.
As the situation continues to evolve, the power dynamics within Syria and their implications for Lebanon remain precarious. The rise of Salafist groups in Lebanon, emboldened by changes in Syria, poses risks of escalating sectarian tensions and localized conflicts. Analysts highlight these radical factions as potential threats to both Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army, which is often viewed as complicit in Hezbollah’s activities
Despite concerns, there is cautious optimism about Lebanon’s need to carefully manage relations with Syria to facilitate mutual recovery after destructive conflicts. Key bilateral issues include the return of frozen Syrian assets held in Lebanon and agreements on Syrian refugees, highlighting intertwined national interests.
Recent border clashes involving Lebanese Shia clans and Syrian forces emphasize the volatility in relations. Misunderstandings and tensions continue to put strain on diplomatic efforts, but communication between the two countries’ leaders indicates an intent to work through these challenges jointly.
The influence of Israeli actions in the region remains a critical concern for Lebanon and Syria as they confront newfound uncertainties. The new Syrian government’s approach to Israel’s military operations hints at a lack of cohesive strategy, further complicating regional security.
Analysts assert that the success of bilateral relations will hinge on Syria’s stability and its responses to regional threats, including violent extremist groups. Nicholas Noe emphasizes the importance of cooperation to mitigate these risks as both countries strive to rebuild amidst ongoing regional tensions.
Lebanon and Syria stand at a critical juncture following the fall of Assad’s regime. While there are opportunities for rebuilding relations, significant challenges remain due to sectarian tensions, the rise of extremist groups, and the impact of Israeli aggression. Both countries must navigate these complexities carefully to ensure stability and mutual cooperation in the region moving forward.
Original Source: www.newarab.com
