Ethiopia and Somalia Enhance Relations Amid Regional Uncertainties
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Somalia signifies a profound milestone in the restoration of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, concluding a tense year following Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland. The discussions underscore a commitment to regional collaboration for peace, security, and economic prosperity. However, uncertainties remain regarding Somaliland’s position and the reaction of Egypt and Eritrea. Analysts propose that Ethiopia must lead efforts for regional stability while addressing internal challenges.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent visit to Mogadishu marked a significant thaw in Ethiopia-Somalia relations, following a year of tensions that escalated after Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland. The visit is seen as a culmination of the mutual efforts initiated by the Ankara Declaration of December 2024, which ended the diplomatic standoff between the two nations that began in January 2024. During his discussions with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, PM Abiy emphasized the vital need for collaboration in various sectors, including peace, security, and economic development, stating the importance of regional integration in order to fully harness the Horn of Africa’s potential for collective prosperity.
The Ethiopian leader’s trip signals advancing implementation of the Ankara Declaration, suggesting waning interest from Somaliland in the previous agreement. In a crucial development, Somalia decided not to replace Ethiopia with Egypt as a primary contributor to the African Union troop presence within its borders. The inclusion of Ethiopian troops in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) marks an official reinforcement of bilateral ties.
Scholars perceive these developments as a transformative shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, where alliances are often subject to rapid changes. Constantinos Berhutesfa, a former AU anti-graft commissioner, noted these fluctuations in relationships. He argues that the re-establishment of ties between Somalia and Ethiopia has occurred amidst uncertainty about Somaliland’s stance toward the MoU, which had previously fueled regional tensions.
Somaliland’s newly elected president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abullahi (Irro), expressed intentions to review the terms of the agreement with Ethiopia, thereby introducing potential delays to the MoU that has been at the heart of recent confrontations. The realignment of Somalia also undermines Egypt’s attempts to isolate Ethiopia and poses questions about future dynamics in the region.
Constantinos emphasizes the significance of this normalization for Somalia’s stability, noting that regional players prefer the presence of Ethiopian forces to maintain peace in Somalia. However, concerns remain regarding the October 2024 military agreement between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia, which could complicate the newly established Ethiopian-Somali relations.
Warnings linger about the influence of Egypt and Eritrea in the region following Somalia’s move to strengthen ties with Ethiopia. Constantinos suggests that although diplomatic engagements will be critical, the potential for further destabilization poses a threat, particularly if radical entities like Al-Shabaab find support from entrenched regional politics.
The evolving situation has attracted attention following statements from former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome, who criticized Eritrea’s role in regional instability. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have emerged again, intensifying anxiety regarding military confrontation despite a mutual understanding that a new conflict would be detrimental to both nations.
Constantinos advocates for a strategic focus on stabilizing the region amid underlying tensions, asserting that Ethiopia must bolster its role as a regional stabilizer. He proposes the organization of an international peace and security conference to address these crises, suggesting that such an initiative would rehabilitate Ethiopia’s international standing, which has been tarnished in recent years.
He argues that the significant political architecture in Ethiopia—with organizations like the AU headquartered in Addis Ababa—lends itself to an enhanced role in continental matters, emphasizing that regional stability is a prerequisite for contending with larger issues. A well-organized summit, backed by regional stakeholders, could catalyze solutions to instability across the Horn of Africa, reflecting Ethiopia’s historical commitment to peacekeeping.
In conclusion, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Somalia illustrates the advancing normalization of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, marking a pivotal moment following a year of heightened tensions. The strategic realignment in the Horn of Africa underscores the importance of collaboration in addressing regional challenges. However, uncertainties concerning Somaliland’s status and external influences from Egypt and Eritrea necessitate cautious observation moving forward. Ethiopia’s commitment to fostering regional stability could pave the way for renewed peace and cooperation in the Horn of Africa, contingent on successful diplomatic initiatives.
Original Source: www.thereporterethiopia.com
