Concerns Surrounding Shi’ite Influence Within the Lebanese Armed Forces
The Alma Research and Education Center’s report highlights the increasing Shi’ite influence within the Lebanese Armed Forces and its problematic relationship with Hezbollah. It raises concerns about the LAF’s ability to uphold the Israel ceasefire. President Aoun’s claims of a singular state responsibility for security are scrutinized as the LAF faces challenges. The report calls for strategies to curb Hezbollah’s influence and diversify the LAF’s demographics.
A report from the Alma Research and Education Center has raised concerns regarding the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), particularly in southern Lebanon, indicating a troubling trend of increasing Shi’ite influence and complicity with Hezbollah. The report questions the LAF’s capacity to uphold the ceasefire with Israel, suggesting that Hezbollah has a growing presence within the military, which undermines its stability and security functions.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun asserts that only the state should be responsible for national security. He has made appeals to the international community, expressing a desire for the LAF to serve as a counterbalance to Hezbollah. However, skepticism exists regarding the feasibility of this stance, with analysts suggesting that Aoun’s statements are more political rhetoric than reflection of reality.
Tal Beeri, head of research at the Alma Center, expressed doubts about Aoun’s commitment, highlighting that the LAF faces limitations that hinder effective governance and action. He noted, “Aoun says what the Americans want him to say, but in the end, there is reality, and unfortunately right now it shows other things.” This skepticism casts a shadow over Aoun’s efforts to present a new era of governance in Lebanon.
The report indicates a demographic shift in the LAF, with recruitment trends showing a marked increase in Shi’ite members and a decline in Christian enlistment. This shift raises alarms about the likelihood of the LAF developing a Shi’ite majority, potentially compromising its role as a neutral national army due to increasing collaboration with Hezbollah, which may violate international agreements and protocols.
Moreover, the report warns that familial ties between LAF soldiers and Hezbollah operatives heighten the risk of Hezbollah exploiting the LAF for strategic advantages, further eroding the military’s independence. The situation could lead to the LAF functioning increasingly as a Hezbollah proxy, undermining its legitimacy and effectiveness as a national defense force.
Over two decades, U.S. aid to the LAF has reached $3 billion, raising concerns about the leakage of advanced weaponry to Hezbollah, including anti-tank missiles and surveillance technology. Analysts contend the assumption that the LAF can counterbalance Hezbollah is flawed, given the ongoing cooperation between the two entities.
To address these issues, the report advocates for Lebanon to take steps, under international scrutiny, to isolate Hezbollah and mitigate demographic changes. Strategies include ensuring Shi’ite commanders are reassigned away from regions of conflict and enhancing demographic diversity within the army to preserve its integrity as a national institution.
Finally, Beeri emphasized the urgency of addressing the relationship between the LAF and Hezbollah. He stated, “For the ceasefire agreement to be fulfilled properly, it depends on the anchor of the LAF, and currently, there is a problem… It is mowing the lawn and it will not prevent Hezbollah from regrowing.”
The findings from the Alma Research and Education Center underline significant vulnerabilities within the Lebanese Armed Forces due to increasing Shi’ite influence and relations with Hezbollah. The report illustrates how these shifts undermine the LAF’s capacity to maintain national security and fulfill its obligations. Aoun’s political maneuvers to present a stronger LAF face skepticism, as the reality on the ground suggests otherwise. A collaborative approach, emphasizing demographic diversity, is essential for restoring balance and stability.
Original Source: www.jewishpress.com
