Sudan’s Civil Conflict: Humanitarian Crisis and Internal Strife

Sudan’s civil conflict, nearing two years, has resulted in a humanitarian crisis affecting 30 million citizens. Following the overthrow of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, hopes for democracy were dashed by military control, with escalating violence and foreign interventions exacerbating the situation. By late 2023, the RSF controlled large parts of Sudan, initiating a humanitarian disaster. Efforts for democratic restoration seem bleak as the nation remains divided.

Sudan continues to suffer under the repercussions of its civil conflict, which is approaching the two-year mark. With approximately 30 million out of 50 million citizens requiring immediate humanitarian assistance, the nation endures a severe crisis. The United Nations Secretary-General has articulated the “staggering scale and brutality” of the situation, highlighting that 9 million have been displaced and 3 million have fled to neighboring countries.

Initially, aspirations for a democratic transition emerged following the ousting of long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019. A civilian-military partnership was established with a joint Sovereignty Council aimed at leading Sudan towards democracy. Regrettably, in October 2021, the military resumed control, with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Lt. General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti) at the helm, interrupting the fledgling democratic progress.

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Dagalo, evolved from the notorious Janjaweed militia, transitioning into a militarized body to manage internal dissent. The RSF expanded from a mere 5,000 fighters in 2014 to approximately 100,000 by early 2023. Efforts to reinstate a civilian government faltered, placing Sudan under military governance from January 2022, governed by two generals unwilling to relinquish authority.

Throughout 2022, the United States and Saudi Arabia attempted to restore civilian rule, culminating in the “Political Framework Agreement” of December 2022. However, expectations of cooperation dwindled as both factions failed to yield control. On April 15, 2023, the RSF initiated attacks on army bases across Sudan, asserting dominance and escalating the conflict significantly across 14 provinces.

The RSF prioritized seizing control of Darfur and by November captured most of the region, including Khartoum, leading to a strategic shift. By late October 2023, a significant portion of Sudan was under RSF control, with the group accused of inciting famine and widespread atrocities against civilians, notably the Masalit ethnic group in Darfur, raising concerns about a humanitarian disaster.

American humanitarian aid has been pivotal; however, there are fears this support may be jeopardized by changing political stances, particularly with the new Trump administration. In contrast, the UAE has stepped up its assistance, amounting to $600 million since the onset of the conflict. As RSF forces faced setbacks in early 2024, the SAF regained momentum, employing better tactics while the RSF struggled with internal issues and supply chain difficulties.

External interventions have further complicated the conflict, with the UAE playing a significant role in supporting the RSF with arms supplies and financial backing. Concurrently, Iran and Russia have emerged as supporters of the SAF, enhancing their military capabilities, as the conflict draws in various foreign interests focused on securing strategic advantages in the region.

China’s historical engagement in Sudan, particularly in oil during the 1990s, has diminished due to the ongoing unrest. However, recent diplomatic meetings between Sudanese leaders and Chinese officials may rejuvenate relations. While the United States remains a source of humanitarian assistance, its active role in promoting peace has diminished post-transition to military rule.

Following the disintegration of the armed partnership, Sudan remains effectively partitioned, with one-third under RSF control and no clear pathway to restoring a democratic government. Both factions appear to be reverting to prior power dynamics, complicating the potential for unity among the fractious political landscape. The situation for democracy activists remains dire as they find themselves caught between military factions once more, with diminishing hopes for the peaceful transition to democracy that once seemed feasible.

Sudan’s ongoing civil conflict has led to widespread humanitarian crises, deepened by foreign interventions and internal strife between its military factions. While initial hopes for democratic transition surfaced in 2019, those aspirations have been thwarted by military coups and enduring violence. With significant displacement and loss of life representing the human cost of the conflict, efforts for reconciliation and stability face numerous challenges. The future of democracy in Sudan appears uncertain, as both military leaders struggle for dominance, leaving ordinary citizens in desperate conditions.

Original Source: frontline.thehindu.com