Climate Change Intensifies: La Niña’s Cooling Effects May Be Insufficient
Climate change is intensifying, diminishing La Niña’s effectiveness against heat. IMD predicts an early summer with higher temperatures and prolonged heatwaves in India, following an unusually warm February. Experts emphasize the impacts of El Niño and La Niña alongside rising temperatures and expect more extreme weather patterns due to ongoing climate change.
Recent assessments by climate scientists indicate that climate change is becoming increasingly robust, rendering the cooling effects of La Niña less effective in combating rising temperatures. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) anticipates an early summer characterized by above-normal temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. February 2024 was recorded as India’s warmest since 1901, accompanied by the fifth lowest rainfall since 2001.
Human-induced climate change is creating a so-called ‘new normal’ with warmer winters and shorter springs, as detailed by scientists who note significant yearly weather variations termed ‘year-to-year variability’. Arpita Mondal, a climate expert at IIT Bombay, remarked that this year’s predictions from IMD highlight an unusually dry winter, suggesting a need for renewed understanding of how rainfall impacts climate as it naturally cools temperatures.
Earth system scientist Raghu Murtugudde observed global temperature anomalies during December to February, which he attributes to jet stream fluctuations. These powerful winds impact climatic conditions by shifting position and affecting temperature patterns across regions. Mondal further noted that a northward shift in these winds correlates directly with the characteristics of heatwaves, including their duration and intensity.
The influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate driver, comprising both El Niño and La Niña phases, is also pertinent to understanding these trends. Vimal Mishra, a civil engineering professor at IIT Gandhinagar, explained how El Niño-related conditions lead to warmer springs, whereas La Niña typically brings cooler days. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicated that the current weak La Niña phenomenon is expected to be brief, with conditions shifting towards neutrality beginning July 2024.
Data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that temperatures from March 2024 through February 2025 are forecasted to be 0.71 degrees Celsius above the historical average, further indicating rising sea surface temperatures across numerous bodies of water. Murtugudde emphasized that the anticipated weather patterns are uncharacteristic and possibly intertwined with the extreme warming observed in 2023, which remains unexplained in its magnitude.
Future projections suggest that El Niño events will become more frequent and severe, with a notable portion predicted as extreme phenomena. The current 2023-24 El Niño is classified among the five strongest on record, contributing to heightened global temperatures and frequent extreme weather occurrences. India noted a staggering 536 heatwave days throughout summer 2024, the highest in 14 years, with the northwestern region experiencing an unprecedented warm June.
Mishra concluded that the most significant impact arises from climate change itself, asserting that even under neutral ENSO conditions, severe heatwaves should be anticipated, given the early onset of warm temperatures this March. The WMO recently forecasted a 60 percent likelihood of ENSO neutrality from March to May 2025, warning that while an El Niño might exacerbate issues, La Niña will likely fail to offer substantial relief.
In summary, climate scientists underscore that climate change’s intensifying effects may overshadow La Niña’s cooling benefits in the future. India faces early summer predictions, including elevated temperatures and heatwaves, amidst increasingly shorter seasons. The impacts of the ENSO phenomenon remain significant, with emerging trends forecasting more extreme weather linked to El Niño. The enhanced frequency of heatwaves and recorded soaring temperatures confirm substantial climate shifts that demand urgent attention and action.
Original Source: www.theweek.in
