Abiy Ahmed’s Desperate Gamble: The Risks of Potential Conflict with Eritrea
The article analyzes Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s potential military actions against Eritrea amid rising internal crises in Ethiopia. Analysts express concerns that the Ethiopian military, under Abiy’s leadership, may target Eritrea to distract from escalating domestic issues, including economic decline and ethnic tensions. The situation suggests that Abiy’s strategy is a desperate attempt to maintain his power rather than a rational military strategy.
In recent weeks, there has been a noticeable increase in concern regarding the potential for Ethiopia to engage in military action against Eritrea. This anxiety has been further fueled by state media rhetoric from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, suggesting the Ethiopian military seeks a naval base with sea access. Analysts and commentators from Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia are particularly vocal about the implications of targeting Eritrea’s important port of Assab.
While some observers dismiss the likelihood of an Ethiopian invasion, attributing it to Abiy’s considerable internal challenges, a deeper examination reveals a more alarming reality. Leaders of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are growing more convinced of a potential escalation in conflict among their fractured factions. This tension evolves from the integration of Tigrayan forces into Abiy’s military, with visible backing for the faction led by Getachew through support from former military chief Samora Yunis, now an advisor to the current military leadership.
Abiy Ahmed’s government faces numerous crises that threaten its stability, leading to speculation about a possible desperate attempt to divert attention through conflict with Eritrea. His regime is experiencing an array of crises, likened to a precarious “house of cards,” which could push him towards armed conflict as a means of survival rather than a well-thought strategic choice.
Among the pressing domestic issues are severe economic decline, punctuated by rampant inflation and a depletion of a crucial IMF loan, ultimately exacerbated by the suspension of U.S. aid. Additionally, the political landscape appears fractured with ongoing strife involving the TPLF in Tigray, the Fano militia’s rise in the Amhara region, and the Oromo Liberation Army asserting control in the Oromo region.
Furthermore, there are escalating ethnic tensions across the nation, with conservative estimates indicating hundreds of thousands of lives lost and significant displacement since 2018. The reliance on drone warfare by Abiy’s government has also raised alarms among international observers, with the African Union attempting to address the surging violence and human rights abuses resulting from these actions.
Amid this backdrop, the prospect of a conflict with Eritrea may be viewed by Abiy as a strategic distraction, hoping to shift focus away from profound domestic troubles. However, this potential strategy is fraught with risks, presenting a reckless and short-sighted gamble on regional stability and personal preservation. The international community must actively monitor these developments and respond appropriately to deter further escalation of conflict in the region.
In conclusion, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s perceived inclination towards military engagement with Eritrea seems rooted in a strategy to redirect attention from his regime’s internal crises. The precarious situation within Ethiopia, characterized by economic failure, political fragmentation, and rampant ethnic tensions, complicates the landscape. This war with Eritrea appears less an act of aggression and more a desperate gamble for survival, posing significant risks to regional stability. Continued vigilance and proactive measures by the international community are essential to curtail this dangerous trajectory and uphold peace in the region.
Original Source: borkena.com
