M23 and Rwanda: Redrawing the Maps of Power in Eastern DRC

The M23 militia, backed by Rwanda, has captured significant territories in eastern DRC, raising geopolitical tensions. The resurgence of M23 stems from both unfulfilled promises by the Congolese government and Rwanda’s imperative to protect its interests against perceived threats. As humanitarian crises escalate and regional tensions rise, international intervention is becoming increasingly urgent to prevent broader conflict.

In late January and early February, the M23 militia captured Goma and Bukavu in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), marking a significant territorial gain reminiscent of the state’s borders. The Rwandan-backed group is now attempting to reshape the geopolitical landscape in the African Great Lakes region, as they establish local administrations within this expansive territory.

The M23 rebellion, originally emerging in 2012, faced defeat in 2013 after international pressure on Rwanda. Paradoxically, while M23 proclaims to protect the Rwandophone community in eastern Congo, it aims for broader ambitions that align with Rwanda’s interests. This is further evidenced by the formation of the Alliance du Fleuve Congo, a political wing of M23 advocating for regime change in Kinshasa.

After resurfacing in November 2021, M23’s resurgence was fueled by the Congolese government’s unfulfilled promises to integrate militia veterans into the national army. More crucially, Rwanda’s desire to safeguard its regional interests played a pivotal role in reactivating the group.

Kigali harbors deep concerns regarding the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) rebel group, viewing it as a significant threat despite its dwindling numbers. Economic motivations also influence Rwanda’s engagement as much of its gold, a key export, is sourced from eastern DRC. Additionally, military activities by Uganda and Burundi against insurgencies within their territories prompted Rwanda to bolster its proxy, M23, to protect its interests.

The humanitarian implications of M23’s offensive are dire; an estimated three million individuals have been displaced over the past fourteen months, along with thousands of casualties. The unfolding public health crisis adds to the urgent concerns of potential regional conflicts.

Rising apprehensions in Burundi about escalating war with Rwanda have become dominant. Accusations regarding support for rebel factions abound, and tensions heighten, leading Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye to rally citizens against Rwanda, labeling it a significant adversary.

Uganda, paralleling Rwanda, maintains vested interests in eastern DRC, particularly regarding gold sourcing. The complex political dynamics have seen Uganda provide support to M23, while also expanding its military presence in the region, navigating between competition and collaboration with Rwanda.

President Felix Tshisekedi’s grasp over eastern DRC appears to be weakening, with low morale among his army evidenced by fleeing soldiers. The withdrawal of crucial Burundian forces exacerbates the challenges faced by Tshisekedi, while M23’s movements intensify toward Katanga, hinting at further complexities in the conflict.

Amidst the chaos, ethnic and political tensions within the DRC are escalating, with rising threats against Swahili speakers likely contributing to M23’s perceived legitimacy. This scenario echoes past conflicts, like the Second Congolese War, which resulted in devastating human tolls.

International pressure had proven critical in quelling initial conflicts involving M23. Currently, Tshisekedi is reattempting to galvanize international support against Rwandan involvement, albeit with limited success. His proposals include military assistance linked to access to DRC’s mineral resources in the hope of shifting foreign partnerships.

While the U.S. has publicly condemned Rwanda’s support for M23, actual repercussions remain muted, with no aid suspended thus far. Recent sanctions against key Rwandan individuals signify progress, yet substantial pressure will be necessary to dissuade Rwanda from its support for M23, especially as the situation deteriorates and risks of a larger conflict loom.

In summary, the reemergence of M23 and its control over significant territories in eastern DRC poses serious challenges to regional stability. The interplay between Rwandan interests and the internal dynamics of the DRC complicates the situation further. The humanitarian crisis and rising tensions with neighboring countries, particularly Burundi and Uganda, underscore the urgency for international intervention, although efforts so far have yielded limited success. The situation remains precarious, demanding decisive action to avert a broader regional conflict.

Original Source: responsiblestatecraft.org