Preventing Warfare Between Ethiopia and Eritrea: A Call for Immediate Action
Urgent intervention is needed from Gulf and Western allies to avert a potential war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, following political instability and military tensions in Tigray. The Pretoria Agreement is failing, and the risk of renewed conflict threatens to destabilize the Red Sea region. Diplomatic efforts led by influential countries are crucial to prevent a catastrophic escalation.
The potential for an imminent conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea necessitates urgent action from Gulf states and their Western allies. Following the cessation of hostilities agreement in late 2022 between the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition, a fragile political environment remains in Tigray. With tensions escalating, the risk of renewed war threatens to destabilize the entire Red Sea region.
The Pretoria Agreement, which called for an interim administration in Tigray, is in precarious condition as internal struggles deeply divide the region. Leadership conflicts within the Tigrayan Defense Forces and growing unrest pose significant risks of a coup or violence against the interim leadership. The political strife has created a powder keg, ready to ignite a broader regional conflict.
The historical context reveals a strained relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea, marred by a devastating war from 1998 to 2000. Since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018, efforts for rapprochement with Eritrea have deteriorated. Accusations regarding violations of the Pretoria Agreement and destabilizing actions from both sides exacerbate the distrust.
Military deployments from Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Tigrayan forces signify potential conflict. Given the current military posturing, a warning from Tigray’s interim administration emphasizes the urgency of addressing this crisis. Should war erupt, the consequences could extend beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea, threatening stability across the Horn of Africa.
In this volatile climate, international diplomatic efforts are critical. The influence of Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could play a pivotal role in halting the slide into conflict. Collaborative diplomatic efforts involving the African Union could create a platform for negotiations among the conflicting parties, focusing on sustainable solutions.
Failure to prevent escalating tensions may lead to catastrophic outcomes, including widespread anarchy comparable to crises in other conflict zones. The potential ramifications of an Ethiopia-Eritrea war would not only engulf northeast Africa but also destabilize the geopolitically significant Red Sea region, reinforcing the necessity for immediate intervention.
In conclusion, with the precarious state of affairs in Tigray and the potential for renewed hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea, prompt action is essential. The involvement of key international players and diplomatic initiatives could offer pathways to de-escalation. Without strategic intervention, the risks of a protracted conflict and subsequent regional instability remain exceedingly high, highlighting the urgency for preventive measures.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
