Ethiopia and Eritrea: Rising Tensions Signal Potential Conflict

Officials in Tigray warn of a risk for renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, threatening the peace achieved after Abiy Ahmed’s Nobel-winning efforts. Tensions are exacerbated by internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front and militarization from both nations. Experts indicate the precarious situation could lead to a wider crisis, requiring close international attention.

Recent warnings from officials in Ethiopia’s Tigray region indicate a looming risk of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. This potential clash could undermine the peace established following Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s efforts that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Analysts suggest that any direct combat could trigger a humanitarian crisis in the already unstable Horn of Africa, where many are suffering from existing conflicts in neighboring countries.

General Tsadkan Gebretensae, vice president of the interim Tigray administration, expressed grave concerns, stating in the Africa Report, “At any moment war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out.” The backdrop to these tensions includes a civil war in Tigray from 2020 to 2022, which resulted in significant loss of life and ongoing internal strife.

The factions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) present another complication, as one faction collaborates with the federal government while the other opposes it. Recently, the dissident faction took control of the northern town of Adigrat, raising alarms about potential alliances with Eritrea. Getachew Reda, Tigray’s interim administration leader, has called for governmental support against these dissidents, highlighting the precarious situation.

Ethiopia’s federal government has remained silent on the rising tensions, while Eritrea has mobilized its military, further escalating concerns. Reports indicate that Ethiopia has also positioned troops near the border, though the situation remains sensitive and unverified. Experts, including former envoys Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos, warn that current conditions resemble “dry tinder waiting for a match,” indicating the high likelihood of conflict.

Historically, relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have been complex, marred by a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000 and an extensive struggle for independence. Although the normalization of ties in 2018 initially improved relations, the exclusion of Eritrea from later peace negotiations has reignited tensions. Recent statements from Abiy regarding Ethiopia’s aspirations for sea access have also been interpreted as potentially aggressive by Eritrean officials, exacerbating the situation amid increasing regional militarization.

The situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea appears increasingly tenuous, with officials from Tigray warning of an imminent conflict that could reverse recent peace efforts. The internal divisions within Tigray, military mobilizations on both sides, and a history of fraught relations contribute to a volatile environment. The international community must closely monitor developments to prevent further humanitarian crises in the region.

Original Source: www.usnews.com