Assessing Iran’s Resilience Amidst Persistent Challenges

Iran is facing significant challenges, including weakened regional allies and potential U.S. policy shifts under Trump, which many analysts see as a strategic defeat for the Islamic Republic. However, Tehran regards these challenges as temporary setbacks. To manage internal dissent, Iran has introduced reforms to engage the public while aiming to maintain cohesion in the face of external threats, particularly from the U.S. At the same time, the leadership remains committed to its longstanding strategies.

Iran has faced numerous challenges over the past year, including the weakening of its regional allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, due to Israeli military actions, and the abrupt collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria. Additionally, the potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could reignite maximum pressure policies, which have significantly impacted Iran’s economy since 2018. Many analysts suggest these factors culminate in a strategic defeat for the Islamic Republic.

In contrast, Iran perceives these external challenges as temporary setbacks rather than indicative of defeat. The Islamic Republic believes that despite suffering losses, Hamas and Hezbollah have displayed resilience as organizations and continue to maintain support from their constituencies. This perspective extends to Iran’s aligned forces, such as the Houthis in Yemen, who actively support the Palestinian cause and reinforce Tehran’s influence in the region.

Acknowledging the diminished strength of its alliances, Iran has initiated reforms aimed at bolstering domestic support by addressing public discontent with authoritarian governance. These reforms include relaxing the enforcement of dress codes for women and allowing more open discussions on social media. Such measures aim to enhance public trust and minimize the risk of internal unrest, thereby fostering a unified front against external pressures.

Despite implementing these internal adjustments, Iran’s leadership does not view them as steps towards a broader reconciliation with the West. Instead, Tehran seeks to create a solidified domestic support base to adequately respond to potential U.S. actions under a future Trump administration, which remains unpredictable and aggressive towards Iranian interests.

While the military defeats of Hamas and Hezbollah may have bolstered their ideological commitments, the swift collapse of the Assad regime poses a more significant concern for Tehran. This unforeseen event has raised public anxiety in Iran, particularly as governmental repression and corruption have strained relations between the state and its populace. Iranian officials acknowledge the urgent need to rebuild public trust and resilience.

In a notable shift, Ayatollah Khamenei’s administration has halted the implementation of a contentious veiling law, which would punish women for not adhering to prescribed dress codes. This decision reflects a broader understanding of the unpopularity of such mandates within Iranian society, especially following the backlash against oppressive enforcement, particularly highlighted by the 2022 protests sparked by Mahsa Amini’s death.

The Iranian government has also allowed for increased discourse within state-controlled media to acknowledge public sentiment. This development allows for a variety of perspectives, including opposition views, to circulate, thereby potentially mitigating public discontent by addressing it within a controlled environment. The regime hopes that this facilitated dialogue will divert attention from critical international issues while reinforcing its narrative surrounding national security.

As Iran’s leadership navigates both domestic policy and foreign negotiations, they aim to consolidate internal unity in preparation for any future conflict with the U.S. The prevailing belief is that fostering public support will enhance bargaining power regarding Iran’s nuclear program and regional strategies. Continuous internal cohesion is regarded as essential for Iran to maintain its stance against external coercion, reflecting the regime’s enduring defiance amid significant challenges.

In summary, Iran is currently navigating a complex landscape marked by external pressures and internal dissent. The Islamic Republic perceives its challenges as temporary setbacks rather than a strategic defeat, believing in the resilience of its regional allies. Ongoing measures to relax domestic restrictions aim to bolster public support and minimize unrest. Tehran’s leadership recognizes the significance of maintaining internal cohesion to navigate potential confrontations with the United States, emphasizing that their fundamental strategies remain unchanged despite reforms. Thus, while Iran seeks stability, its core defiance against external pressures persists.

Original Source: www.foreignaffairs.com