An Analysis of the Islamic State’s Impact and Challenges in Somalia
The Islamic State in Somalia, an affiliate of ISIS, is based in Puntland and has been involved in various terror plots while facing recent military defeats. Though the group has an exaggerated reputation, it generated significant revenue from local extortion and has potential for regrouping despite losses. Researcher Stig Jarle Hansen examines its origins, rise, and ongoing presence in the region amidst challenges.
The Islamic State in Somalia, an affiliate of ISIS, operates primarily from Puntland, a semi-autonomous region in northern Somalia. Initially targeted by the Trump administration in February 2025, the group has been implicated in planned attacks on significant global locations such as the Vatican and the Israeli embassy in Stockholm. Stig Jarle Hansen, a researcher specializing in jihadism in Africa, analyzes the group’s history, recent military losses, and its ongoing influence in the region.
The Islamic State in Somalia was established in 2015, following a split within the Somali jihadist group al-Shabaab. Sheikh Abdulqader Muumin, who emerged from this division, leveraged his connections with the Ali Suleiban sub-clan to benefit from local smuggling and piracy operations. The region of Puntland has a long history of autonomy from the Somali government, fostering an environment conducive to insurgency and criminal activities.
Muumin’s background includes living in Sweden and the UK before returning to Somalia, where he initially gained prominence within al-Shabaab. In 2015, he defected to lead the Islamic State in Somalia, with strategic communications aimed at boosting morale and recruitment. The group’s notorious 2017 bombing of the Juba Hotel in Bosaso amplified their influence, enforcing extortion tactics to secure financial support through protection fees.
The Islamic State in Somalia’s claims regarding its operational capacity are often exaggerated. Estimates suggest that it never fully captured substantial territory, maintaining a fighter count significantly lower than that of al-Shabaab. Furthermore, connections to planned attacks in 2024 and 2018 were not as robust as initially reported. Muumin’s ascendancy to global leadership is questionable, as he does not belong to a lineage traditionally associated with the Islamic State’s hierarchy.
Recent military actions by Puntland forces, alongside U.S. and UAE air support, inflicted considerable losses on the Islamic State, with 70 fighters reportedly killed. By late February 2025, the main bases had fallen, impacting the morale of the remaining fighters. However, the group has not been entirely defeated and retains the potential for resurgence, especially if it can capitalize on existing local tensions and recruit among the unemployed populace, including Ethiopian refugees.
The complexities surrounding the existence of the Islamic State in Somalia highlight the ongoing challenge it poses to regional stability, despite recent setbacks. Continuous vigilance and intervention may be essential in preventing its resurgence.
In conclusion, the Islamic State in Somalia, although facing significant military setbacks, continues to pose a threat due to its financial operations and potential for recruitment among vulnerable populations. The group’s historical context reveals its emergence from previous jihadist factions and highlights its strategic engagements within Puntland, a region characterized by instability. Ongoing counter-terrorism efforts are critical in mitigating the risks associated with this faction.
Original Source: www.inkl.com
