U.S. Air Campaign Against Houthis Shows Limited Impact Amid Rising Tensions
The U.S. bombing campaign against Yemen’s Houthis has intensified, focusing on thwarting attacks on shipping and pressuring Iran, but analysts question its effectiveness. Despite significant airstrikes, the Houthis continue to launch attacks, suggesting that the campaign may bolster their ties with Iran instead of isolating them. A recent failure in nuclear negotiations further complicates the situation.
The United States has intensified its bombing campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, particularly since March 15, 2023. This initiative, named “Operation Rough Rider,” aims to disrupt Houthi assaults on shipping in the Red Sea and to exert more pressure on Iran amid ongoing nuclear negotiations. However, the effectiveness of these strikes remains in question, with many analysts skeptical about their long-term impact on the rebel group.
Colin Clarke, who heads policy and research at Soufan Group, observes that despite some success in destroying Houthi infrastructure, the group seems to be leveraging the situation for its own advantage. “The Houthis remain undeterred,” he stated, underscoring a potential uptick in recruitment and fundraising amid the campaign’s turmoil.
Jeremy Binnie, a defense analyst at Janes, pointed out the Houthis’ persistent capability to launch attacks, especially against Israel, which challenges U.S. claims of diminishing their operational capacity. “It is arguably getting increasingly embarrassing for the United States every time the Houthis launch an attack on Israel or shoot down an MQ-9,” Binnie explained.
Moreover, a recent incident involving a U.S. Navy F/A-18 fighter that fell from the USS Harry S. Truman while evading a Houthi attack only amplified perceptions of the group’s ongoing threat. The Houthis have not held back, as evidenced by their missile strikes against Israel, which led the Israel Defense Forces to activate nationwide sirens on May 2.
U.S. Central Command maintains that their air campaign has had a substantial impact, claiming a 69% reduction in ballistic missile launches and a 55% decrease in drone attacks. Yet, they also acknowledge Iran’s persistent support for the Houthis, emphasizing that without Tehran’s backing, the group would struggle to maintain its offensive capabilities.
Interestingly, some analysts suggest that these U.S. military actions may actually be strengthening the bond between the Houthis and Iran. Officially known as the Ansarallah movement, the Houthis are integral to Iran’s “axis of resistance,” encompassing various nonstate actors who have faced challenges recently. In light of the continuing Gaza conflict, the Houthis have recently taken strides to assert a more dominant role within this alliance, pledging solidarity with Palestinians by targeting Israeli interests.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth tweeted a warning to Iran, saying, “You know very well what the U.S. military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.” Nonetheless, Clarke expressed skepticism that the strikes could change the dynamics between the Houthis and Iran, highlighting that they may have inadvertently increased their alliance.
Binnie similarly scrutinizes the U.S. hopes for a pressure effect on Tehran, stating, “but it’s difficult to say if that is happening.” Recently, plans for another round of nuclear talks in Rome were derailed due to “logistical reasons,” according to Omani mediators.
With this sustained bombing effort behind them, the United States seems no closer to preventing Houthi attacks or undermining their political support. The situation raises significant questions about the strategic value of their military campaign and its effectiveness in altering regional dynamics.
The United States’ intensified bombing campaign against the Houthi rebels illustrates the complex dynamics at play in the Middle East. Despite claims of declining Houthi capabilities, analysts find that the group appears to be adapting and reinvigorating its operations. The relationship between the Houthis and Iran could, counterintuitively, be strengthened amid ongoing U.S. efforts. As talks regarding Iran’s nuclear plans stall, the future of regional stability remains uncertain, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of U.S. military strategy in this context.
Original Source: www.rferl.org
