Challenges and Recommendations for Credible Elections in Guinea-Bissau
The upcoming elections in Guinea-Bissau, scheduled for November 24, 2023, face significant challenges due to the absence of legitimate electoral institutions following President Umaro Embaló’s dissolutions of the National People’s Assembly. Key institutions, including the CNE and the Supreme Court, lack the necessary leadership and are hampered by political manipulations and infighting. For elections to be credible and effective, a consensus among political actors is essential, along with potential mediation by ECOWAS. Thus, the consideration of postponing elections may be necessary to establish legitimate governance structures.
As Guinea-Bissau approaches the elections scheduled for November 24, 2023, the legitimacy of the electoral process is under serious scrutiny. The upcoming election, which is expected to fill the National People’s Assembly (ANP), is overshadowed by institutional dysfunction and increasing political tensions. President Umaro Embaló’s controversial dissolutions of the ANP—first in May 2022 and again in December 2022—were largely perceived as strategic moves to shift power dynamics, particularly as the PAIGC, which holds a significant majority in the ANP, was seen to obstruct the president’s agenda. The current electoral landscape is marred by the expiring tenure of key electoral officials and the paralysis of the Supreme Court, which is essential for validating candidacies and managing electoral disputes. The National Elections Commission (CNE), essential for organizing the elections, operates without legitimacy as its leadership has not been renewed since April 2022. This vacuum of authority leaves the integrity of the elections in doubt, with suspicions about the political affiliations of judges and the CNE officials compromising the neutrality required for fair elections. To navigate these challenges, it is crucial that President Embaló engages in dialogue with various political factions to restore the legitimacy of the electoral institutions. This dialogue is imperative, not only to address immediate concerns but also to build confidence among political stakeholders. Furthermore, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) should intervene, possibly suggesting the postponement of the elections to allow the proper election of new officials for the CNE and Supreme Court. Such measures could help stabilize the political environment, ensuring that the presidential elections do not further entrench the prevailing institutional fragility.
Guinea-Bissau has faced ongoing political instability exacerbated by strategic political maneuvers, particularly surrounding the powers of the presidency and legislature. Since President Umaro Embaló’s initial dissolution of the ANP, the country has grappled with institutional dysfunctions that have undermined the efficacy of electoral bodies. The political landscape is hindered by an ineffective Supreme Court and a National Elections Commission that lacks legitimate leadership, leading to serious concerns about the upcoming elections. The context is further complicated by heightened tensions following the Presidential Guard’s clashes with the National Guard, which embolden fears of electoral manipulation and violence. Given that Guinea-Bissau is in a critical period leading to elections, calls for dialogue and consensus-building among political actors have gained urgency, as these measures are essential to restoring stability and governance within the country. It is a poignant moment for Guinea-Bissau to recalibrate its political dynamics and reinforce the foundations of its democratic processes.
To preserve the integrity of its electoral process and avoid exacerbating its institutional weaknesses, it is imperative for Guinea-Bissau to prioritize dialogue among political stakeholders. With the elections looming, establishing operational electoral bodies and ensuring a transparent electoral process are vital. Potential collaboration with ECOWAS could provide the necessary support and impetus to postpone elections if needed, allowing for the formulation of credible electoral institutions. By laying this groundwork, Guinea-Bissau can better ensure the engagement and trust of its citizenry in the electoral process and promote stability as it moves toward critical legislative and presidential elections in the coming months.
Original Source: www.premiumtimesng.com
