Nine Months After the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU: Regional Implications and Rising Tensions
The Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU has aggravated regional tensions in the Horn of Africa, particularly following Egypt’s military agreements with Somalia, which have further inflamed the situation. Ethiopia’s relations with Somalia have deteriorated, and Al-Shabaab has grown stronger amidst this turmoil. The future of the MOU is uncertain, with potential military confrontations looming if regional cooperation does not improve.
The Horn of Africa continues to be profoundly affected by the January memorandum of understanding (MOU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which permits Ethiopian naval operations along twenty kilometers of Somaliland’s coastline. In exchange, Somaliland’s government claims that Ethiopia is considering recognizing its independence. Nine months post-signing, the dynamics have worsened due to external influences, notably Egypt’s recent military agreements with Somalia, which include the provision of arms and troops, thereby exacerbating local tensions and escalating the risk of confrontation among regional states. Initially, in 2018, relations between Ethiopia and Somalia improved under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed; however, the MOU has destabilized this détente, with Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud labeling Ethiopia an enemy equivalent to Al-Shabaab. Following this, Mohamud dismissed the MOU’s legitimacy and has sought international support against it, yet Somaliland and Ethiopia have strengthened their alignment through mutual diplomatic initiatives. As the situation developed further, Turkey reinforced its partnership with Somalia by signing a Defense and Economic Cooperation Agreement intended to enhance Somalia’s capabilities against illegal activities, which may also curtail Ethiopia’s naval expansion. Concurrently, Egypt, opposing the MOU, has actively supported Somalia through various diplomatic engagements, and recently signed a significant security agreement with the Somali government. Amidst this turmoil, the militant group Al-Shabaab has regained strength, capitalizing on the regional instability and recent failures to suppress its activities, signaling a deteriorating security environment. The ongoing transition from the African Union’s current mission to a new operation also faces uncertainties due to the rift among Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt, potentially undermining international counterterrorism efforts in the region. In the coming months, the future of the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU remains precarious as heightened tensions risk military confrontations and proxy wars in a region already fraught with conflict. The ramifications of this may extend beyond borders, inviting further instability and violence from Al-Shabaab if cooperative security efforts falter.
The article examines the repercussions of the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU, highlighting how the agreement has influenced regional dynamics and international relations in the Horn of Africa. Following the MOU’s signing, various geopolitical players, including Egypt and Turkey, have recalibrated their engagements, creating a complex web of security alliances and antagonisms that put the already fragile peace in the region at further risk. Al-Shabaab, namely, exploits this turmoil for its gain, increasing its influence and threatening established security strategies.
The ongoing situation in the Horn of Africa requires close monitoring, as the interplay of regional interests, particularly fueled by the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU, has made the area a potential flashpoint for conflict. The rise of Al-Shabaab and the geopolitical maneuvering of nations like Egypt and Turkey further complicate the landscape, necessitating a focus on diplomacy and cooperation to avert escalation and promote stability in the region.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
